On the (Ir)relevance of Prospect Theory in Modelling Uncertainty in Travel Decisions
This paper reflects on the relevance of prospect theory for transportation research. By discussing the original purpose and context of this theory of risky choice and the models that have been derived from the theory, the shortcomings and boundaries of the theory are discussed. It is argued that man...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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TU Delft OPEN Publishing
2010-12-01
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| Series: | European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research |
| Online Access: | https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/2900 |
| _version_ | 1797427645258924032 |
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| author | Harry Timmermans |
| author_facet | Harry Timmermans |
| author_sort | Harry Timmermans |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper reflects on the relevance of prospect theory for transportation research. By discussing the original purpose and context of this theory of risky choice and the models that have been derived from the theory, the shortcomings and boundaries of the theory are discussed. It is argued that many applications in transportation and travel behaviour research may have stretched the domain of this theory too much, and that the theory lacks the necessary set of mechanisms and concepts to serve as a comprehensive theory of repeated travel choices under uncertainty. The discussion of shortcomings may serve to define a research agenda for further developing operational choice models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T08:47:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-78ffc06c0b3748b1892576e8aa754143 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1567-7141 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T08:47:54Z |
| publishDate | 2010-12-01 |
| publisher | TU Delft OPEN Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-78ffc06c0b3748b1892576e8aa7541432023-12-02T15:06:24ZengTU Delft OPEN PublishingEuropean Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research1567-71412010-12-0110410.18757/ejtir.2010.10.4.29002521On the (Ir)relevance of Prospect Theory in Modelling Uncertainty in Travel DecisionsHarry Timmermans0Eindhoven University of TechnologyThis paper reflects on the relevance of prospect theory for transportation research. By discussing the original purpose and context of this theory of risky choice and the models that have been derived from the theory, the shortcomings and boundaries of the theory are discussed. It is argued that many applications in transportation and travel behaviour research may have stretched the domain of this theory too much, and that the theory lacks the necessary set of mechanisms and concepts to serve as a comprehensive theory of repeated travel choices under uncertainty. The discussion of shortcomings may serve to define a research agenda for further developing operational choice models.https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/2900 |
| spellingShingle | Harry Timmermans On the (Ir)relevance of Prospect Theory in Modelling Uncertainty in Travel Decisions European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research |
| title | On the (Ir)relevance of Prospect Theory in Modelling Uncertainty in Travel Decisions |
| title_full | On the (Ir)relevance of Prospect Theory in Modelling Uncertainty in Travel Decisions |
| title_fullStr | On the (Ir)relevance of Prospect Theory in Modelling Uncertainty in Travel Decisions |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the (Ir)relevance of Prospect Theory in Modelling Uncertainty in Travel Decisions |
| title_short | On the (Ir)relevance of Prospect Theory in Modelling Uncertainty in Travel Decisions |
| title_sort | on the ir relevance of prospect theory in modelling uncertainty in travel decisions |
| url | https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/2900 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT harrytimmermans ontheirrelevanceofprospecttheoryinmodellinguncertaintyintraveldecisions |