Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants
This paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation- specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driv...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
2013-06-01
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| Series: | East Asian Economic Review |
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2013.17.2.261 |
| _version_ | 1811262605678870528 |
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| author | Young-Joon Park |
| author_facet | Young-Joon Park |
| author_sort | Young-Joon Park |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation- specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driving forces of regional business cycles. Evidence for regional business cycle synchronization is particularly strong for Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Japan shows weak evidence of regional synchronization. On the other hand, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and China are decoupling from regional business cycles. The driver of monetary aggregate is the most significant determinant of regional fluctuations of macroeconomic aggregates, whereas oil price and productivity are on average important driving forces of nation-specific fluctuations of real economic activities. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T19:28:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-792c4ea5cb074b8ab3e1d945e08ffab1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2508-1640 2508-1667 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T19:28:28Z |
| publishDate | 2013-06-01 |
| publisher | Korea Institute for International Economic Policy |
| record_format | Article |
| series | East Asian Economic Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-792c4ea5cb074b8ab3e1d945e08ffab12022-12-22T03:19:25ZengKorea Institute for International Economic PolicyEast Asian Economic Review2508-16402508-16672013-06-01172103128http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2013.17.2.261Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its DeterminantsYoung-Joon Park 0Department of Economics, Ajou UniversityThis paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation- specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driving forces of regional business cycles. Evidence for regional business cycle synchronization is particularly strong for Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Japan shows weak evidence of regional synchronization. On the other hand, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and China are decoupling from regional business cycles. The driver of monetary aggregate is the most significant determinant of regional fluctuations of macroeconomic aggregates, whereas oil price and productivity are on average important driving forces of nation-specific fluctuations of real economic activities.http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2013.17.2.261Business CycleSynchronizationDecouplingEast AsiaFactor Model |
| spellingShingle | Young-Joon Park Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants East Asian Economic Review Business Cycle Synchronization Decoupling East Asia Factor Model |
| title | Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants |
| title_full | Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants |
| title_fullStr | Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants |
| title_short | Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants |
| title_sort | regional business cycles in east asia synchronization and its determinants |
| topic | Business Cycle Synchronization Decoupling East Asia Factor Model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2013.17.2.261 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT youngjoonpark regionalbusinesscyclesineastasiasynchronizationanditsdeterminants |