Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”?
Abstract Climate change can not only increase the exposure of organisms to higher temperatures but can also drive phenological shifts that alter their susceptibility to conditions at the onset of breeding cycles. Organisms rely on climatic cues to time annual life cycle events, but the extent to whi...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8623 |
| _version_ | 1818113363441352704 |
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| author | Rebecca K. Turner Ilya M. D. Maclean |
| author_facet | Rebecca K. Turner Ilya M. D. Maclean |
| author_sort | Rebecca K. Turner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change can not only increase the exposure of organisms to higher temperatures but can also drive phenological shifts that alter their susceptibility to conditions at the onset of breeding cycles. Organisms rely on climatic cues to time annual life cycle events, but the extent to which climate change has altered cue reliability remains unclear. Here, we examined the risk of a “climate trap”—a climatically driven desynchronization of the cues that determine life cycle events and fitness later in the season in a temperate reptile, the European adder (Vipera berus). During the winter, adders hibernate underground, buffered against subzero temperatures, and re‐emerge in the spring to reproduce. We derived annual spring‐emergence trends between 1983 and 2017 from historical observations in Cornwall, UK, and related these trends to the microclimatic conditions that adders experienced. Using a mechanistic microclimate model, we computed below‐ and near‐ground temperatures to derive accumulated degree‐hour and absolute temperature thresholds that predicted annual spring‐emergence timing. Trends in annual‐emergence timing and subsequent exposure to ground frost were then quantified. We found that adders have advanced their phenology toward earlier emergence. Earlier emergence was associated with increased exposure to ground frost and, contradicting the expected effects of macroclimate warming, increased post‐emergence exposure to ground frost at some locations. The susceptibility of adders to this “climate trap” was related to the rate at which frost risk diminishes relative to advancement in phenology, which depends on the seasonality of climate. We emphasize the need to consider exposure to changing microclimatic conditions when forecasting biological impacts of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T03:33:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-796642cab78c4231b61c083b553111f8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T03:33:39Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-796642cab78c4231b61c083b553111f82022-12-22T01:22:19ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582022-02-01122n/an/a10.1002/ece3.8623Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”?Rebecca K. Turner0Ilya M. D. Maclean1Environment and Sustainability Institute University of Exeter Penryn UKEnvironment and Sustainability Institute University of Exeter Penryn UKAbstract Climate change can not only increase the exposure of organisms to higher temperatures but can also drive phenological shifts that alter their susceptibility to conditions at the onset of breeding cycles. Organisms rely on climatic cues to time annual life cycle events, but the extent to which climate change has altered cue reliability remains unclear. Here, we examined the risk of a “climate trap”—a climatically driven desynchronization of the cues that determine life cycle events and fitness later in the season in a temperate reptile, the European adder (Vipera berus). During the winter, adders hibernate underground, buffered against subzero temperatures, and re‐emerge in the spring to reproduce. We derived annual spring‐emergence trends between 1983 and 2017 from historical observations in Cornwall, UK, and related these trends to the microclimatic conditions that adders experienced. Using a mechanistic microclimate model, we computed below‐ and near‐ground temperatures to derive accumulated degree‐hour and absolute temperature thresholds that predicted annual spring‐emergence timing. Trends in annual‐emergence timing and subsequent exposure to ground frost were then quantified. We found that adders have advanced their phenology toward earlier emergence. Earlier emergence was associated with increased exposure to ground frost and, contradicting the expected effects of macroclimate warming, increased post‐emergence exposure to ground frost at some locations. The susceptibility of adders to this “climate trap” was related to the rate at which frost risk diminishes relative to advancement in phenology, which depends on the seasonality of climate. We emphasize the need to consider exposure to changing microclimatic conditions when forecasting biological impacts of climate change.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8623climate changeecological trapmicroclimatereptilespecies occurrence dataspring phenology |
| spellingShingle | Rebecca K. Turner Ilya M. D. Maclean Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”? Ecology and Evolution climate change ecological trap microclimate reptile species occurrence data spring phenology |
| title | Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”? |
| title_full | Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”? |
| title_fullStr | Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”? |
| title_short | Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”? |
| title_sort | microclimate driven trends in spring emergence phenology in a temperate reptile vipera berus evidence for a potential climate trap |
| topic | climate change ecological trap microclimate reptile species occurrence data spring phenology |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8623 |
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