Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysisResearch in context
Summary: Background: Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally....
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-05-01
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| Series: | EBioMedicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396423001470 |
| _version_ | 1827962762878255104 |
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| author | Yohannes Tefera Damtew Michael Tong Blesson Mathew Varghese Olga Anikeeva Alana Hansen Keith Dear Ying Zhang Geoffrey Morgan Tim Driscoll Tony Capon Peng Bi |
| author_facet | Yohannes Tefera Damtew Michael Tong Blesson Mathew Varghese Olga Anikeeva Alana Hansen Keith Dear Ying Zhang Geoffrey Morgan Tim Driscoll Tony Capon Peng Bi |
| author_sort | Yohannes Tefera Damtew |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science from January 1990 to September 20, 2022. We included peer reviewed original observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs reporting the association of high temperatures and heatwave with dengue and comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Studies classified as case reports, clinical trials, non-human studies, conference abstracts, editorials, reviews, books, posters, commentaries; and studies that examined only seasonal effects were excluded. Effect estimates were extracted from published literature. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) of dengue infection per 1 °C increase in temperature, and further subgroup analyses were also conducted. The quality and strength of evidence were evaluated following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology framework. The review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO). Findings: The study selection process yielded 6367 studies. A total of 106 studies covering more than four million dengue cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria; of these, 54 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate showed a 13% increase in risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.16, I2 = 98.0%) for each 1 °C increase in high temperatures. Subgroup analyses by climate zones suggested greater effects of temperature in tropical monsoon climate zone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11–1.51) and humid subtropical climate zone (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15–1.25). Heatwave events showed association with an increased risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95–1.23, I2 = 88.9%), despite a wide confidence interval. The overall strength of evidence was found to be “sufficient” for high temperatures but “limited” for heatwaves. Our results showed that high temperatures increased the risk of dengue infection, albeit with varying risks across climate zones and different levels of national income. Interpretation: High temperatures increased the relative risk of dengue infection. Future studies on the association between temperature and dengue infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic and environmental characteristics to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels for tailored prevention. Funding: Australian Research Council Discovery Program. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:48:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-79a145f036694332b4012e4591a2a51e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-3964 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:48:04Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | EBioMedicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-79a145f036694332b4012e4591a2a51e2023-04-22T06:21:06ZengElsevierEBioMedicine2352-39642023-05-0191104582Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysisResearch in contextYohannes Tefera Damtew0Michael Tong1Blesson Mathew Varghese2Olga Anikeeva3Alana Hansen4Keith Dear5Ying Zhang6Geoffrey Morgan7Tim Driscoll8Tony Capon9Peng Bi10School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia; College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O.BOX 138, Dire Dawa, EthiopiaNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT, 2601, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, AustraliaMonash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia; Corresponding author. School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.Summary: Background: Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science from January 1990 to September 20, 2022. We included peer reviewed original observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs reporting the association of high temperatures and heatwave with dengue and comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Studies classified as case reports, clinical trials, non-human studies, conference abstracts, editorials, reviews, books, posters, commentaries; and studies that examined only seasonal effects were excluded. Effect estimates were extracted from published literature. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) of dengue infection per 1 °C increase in temperature, and further subgroup analyses were also conducted. The quality and strength of evidence were evaluated following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology framework. The review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO). Findings: The study selection process yielded 6367 studies. A total of 106 studies covering more than four million dengue cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria; of these, 54 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate showed a 13% increase in risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.16, I2 = 98.0%) for each 1 °C increase in high temperatures. Subgroup analyses by climate zones suggested greater effects of temperature in tropical monsoon climate zone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11–1.51) and humid subtropical climate zone (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15–1.25). Heatwave events showed association with an increased risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95–1.23, I2 = 88.9%), despite a wide confidence interval. The overall strength of evidence was found to be “sufficient” for high temperatures but “limited” for heatwaves. Our results showed that high temperatures increased the risk of dengue infection, albeit with varying risks across climate zones and different levels of national income. Interpretation: High temperatures increased the relative risk of dengue infection. Future studies on the association between temperature and dengue infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic and environmental characteristics to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels for tailored prevention. Funding: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396423001470High temperatureHeatwaveDengue feverClimate changeEmerging infectious diseaseArboviral infections |
| spellingShingle | Yohannes Tefera Damtew Michael Tong Blesson Mathew Varghese Olga Anikeeva Alana Hansen Keith Dear Ying Zhang Geoffrey Morgan Tim Driscoll Tony Capon Peng Bi Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysisResearch in context EBioMedicine High temperature Heatwave Dengue fever Climate change Emerging infectious disease Arboviral infections |
| title | Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysisResearch in context |
| title_full | Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysisResearch in context |
| title_fullStr | Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysisResearch in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysisResearch in context |
| title_short | Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysisResearch in context |
| title_sort | effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever a systematic review and meta analysisresearch in context |
| topic | High temperature Heatwave Dengue fever Climate change Emerging infectious disease Arboviral infections |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396423001470 |
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