Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings
Abstract Understanding the response of forests to climate change is important for predicting changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Seedlings represent a key demographic stage in these responses, because seedling establishment is necessary for population persistenc...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2019-06-01
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| Series: | Ecosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2776 |
| _version_ | 1818911393033748480 |
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| author | Emily V. Moran Adrian J. Das Jon E. Keeley Nathan L. Stephenson |
| author_facet | Emily V. Moran Adrian J. Das Jon E. Keeley Nathan L. Stephenson |
| author_sort | Emily V. Moran |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Understanding the response of forests to climate change is important for predicting changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Seedlings represent a key demographic stage in these responses, because seedling establishment is necessary for population persistence and spread, and because the conditions allowing seedlings to survive and grow are often more restrictive than those adults can tolerate. However, detailed long‐term data on the responses of individual seedlings to climatic variation are rare. Here, we analyze a decade of seedling growth and survival data collected in 25 long‐term plots located in Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks. The forest types represented range from lower‐elevation mixed conifer, to red fir‐dominated, to high‐elevation western white pine stands. Twelve species, including two oaks and ten conifers, are found across these plots. Survival and transition to larger size classes are modeled within a Bayesian framework as a function of species, size, fire, and various climate variables. We initially expected that precipitation‐related variables would have a strong effect on seedling survival and growth in this Mediterranean‐climate region and that some species might respond positively to higher temperatures if they are adapted to warmer low‐elevation areas or to higher‐than‐average temperatures if they are high‐elevation species whose growing seasons are limited by cold. However, we found that higher July maximum temperature or temperature anomalies were associated with lower survival and growth for most species, while precipitation and snow effects were weaker and more variable. Higher precipitation had a positive effect on survival of most species, but snow effects and precipitation effects on growth could be negative. Given the estimated climate responses, under potential future scenarios of higher summer temperatures and altered precipitation, most species are predicted to have lower survival and reduced growth. This is likely to favor species that have relatively high survival and growth and less negative responses to climatic shift (such as several of the pines) and perhaps lead to a more open forest structure—or potentially transition to non‐forest vegetation types where seedling recruitment does not keep pace with adult mortality. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T22:57:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-79aceb76201444b79c4d7836af886b78 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2150-8925 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T22:57:59Z |
| publishDate | 2019-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-79aceb76201444b79c4d7836af886b782022-12-21T20:02:36ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252019-06-01106n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.2776Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlingsEmily V. Moran0Adrian J. Das1Jon E. Keeley2Nathan L. Stephenson3University of California Merced Merced California 95343 USAU.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center Sequoia and Kings Canyon Field Station Three Rivers California 93271 USAU.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center Sequoia and Kings Canyon Field Station Three Rivers California 93271 USAU.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center Sequoia and Kings Canyon Field Station Three Rivers California 93271 USAAbstract Understanding the response of forests to climate change is important for predicting changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Seedlings represent a key demographic stage in these responses, because seedling establishment is necessary for population persistence and spread, and because the conditions allowing seedlings to survive and grow are often more restrictive than those adults can tolerate. However, detailed long‐term data on the responses of individual seedlings to climatic variation are rare. Here, we analyze a decade of seedling growth and survival data collected in 25 long‐term plots located in Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks. The forest types represented range from lower‐elevation mixed conifer, to red fir‐dominated, to high‐elevation western white pine stands. Twelve species, including two oaks and ten conifers, are found across these plots. Survival and transition to larger size classes are modeled within a Bayesian framework as a function of species, size, fire, and various climate variables. We initially expected that precipitation‐related variables would have a strong effect on seedling survival and growth in this Mediterranean‐climate region and that some species might respond positively to higher temperatures if they are adapted to warmer low‐elevation areas or to higher‐than‐average temperatures if they are high‐elevation species whose growing seasons are limited by cold. However, we found that higher July maximum temperature or temperature anomalies were associated with lower survival and growth for most species, while precipitation and snow effects were weaker and more variable. Higher precipitation had a positive effect on survival of most species, but snow effects and precipitation effects on growth could be negative. Given the estimated climate responses, under potential future scenarios of higher summer temperatures and altered precipitation, most species are predicted to have lower survival and reduced growth. This is likely to favor species that have relatively high survival and growth and less negative responses to climatic shift (such as several of the pines) and perhaps lead to a more open forest structure—or potentially transition to non‐forest vegetation types where seedling recruitment does not keep pace with adult mortality.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2776Bayesianclimate changeForest demographygrowthseedling recruitmentsurvival |
| spellingShingle | Emily V. Moran Adrian J. Das Jon E. Keeley Nathan L. Stephenson Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings Ecosphere Bayesian climate change Forest demography growth seedling recruitment survival |
| title | Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings |
| title_full | Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings |
| title_fullStr | Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings |
| title_full_unstemmed | Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings |
| title_short | Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings |
| title_sort | negative impacts of summer heat on sierra nevada tree seedlings |
| topic | Bayesian climate change Forest demography growth seedling recruitment survival |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2776 |
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