Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic.
In the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2015-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4619523?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1819085621892743168 |
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| author | Alexander Kirpich Thomas A Weppelmann Yang Yang Afsar Ali J Glenn Morris Ira M Longini |
| author_facet | Alexander Kirpich Thomas A Weppelmann Yang Yang Afsar Ali J Glenn Morris Ira M Longini |
| author_sort | Alexander Kirpich |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates both the reported cholera incidence and remote sensing data from the Ouest Department of Haiti between 2010 to 2014. The model has separate compartments for infectious individuals that include different levels of infectivity to reflect the distribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the population. The environmental compartment, which serves as a source of exposure to toxigenic V. cholerae, is also modeled separately based on the biology of causative bacterium, the shedding of V. cholerae O1 by humans into the environment, as well as the effects of precipitation and water temperature on the concentration and survival of V. cholerae in aquatic reservoirs. Although the number of reported cholera cases has declined compared to the initial outbreak in 2010, the increase in the number of susceptible population members and the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the environment estimated by the model indicate that without further improvements to drinking water and sanitation infrastructures, intermittent cholera outbreaks are likely to continue in Haiti. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T21:07:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-79c127afc8a2477cac9521df969727b7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1935-2727 1935-2735 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T21:07:16Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-79c127afc8a2477cac9521df969727b72022-12-21T18:50:15ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases1935-27271935-27352015-01-01910e000415310.1371/journal.pntd.0004153Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic.Alexander KirpichThomas A WeppelmannYang YangAfsar AliJ Glenn MorrisIra M LonginiIn the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates both the reported cholera incidence and remote sensing data from the Ouest Department of Haiti between 2010 to 2014. The model has separate compartments for infectious individuals that include different levels of infectivity to reflect the distribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the population. The environmental compartment, which serves as a source of exposure to toxigenic V. cholerae, is also modeled separately based on the biology of causative bacterium, the shedding of V. cholerae O1 by humans into the environment, as well as the effects of precipitation and water temperature on the concentration and survival of V. cholerae in aquatic reservoirs. Although the number of reported cholera cases has declined compared to the initial outbreak in 2010, the increase in the number of susceptible population members and the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the environment estimated by the model indicate that without further improvements to drinking water and sanitation infrastructures, intermittent cholera outbreaks are likely to continue in Haiti.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4619523?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Alexander Kirpich Thomas A Weppelmann Yang Yang Afsar Ali J Glenn Morris Ira M Longini Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| title | Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic. |
| title_full | Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic. |
| title_fullStr | Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic. |
| title_short | Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic. |
| title_sort | cholera transmission in ouest department of haiti dynamic modeling and the future of the epidemic |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4619523?pdf=render |
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