Predicting the Geographical Distribution Shift of Medicinal Plants in South Africa Due to Climate Change
There has been a recent rise in the number of medicinal plant users in Southern Africa, with approximately a million users reported to utilize these plants for various health conditions. Unfortunately, some of these plants are reportedly endangered and facing extinction due to harvesting pressure. I...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Conservation |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7159/2/4/45 |
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| author | Thulani Tshabalala Onisimo Mutanga Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman |
| author_facet | Thulani Tshabalala Onisimo Mutanga Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman |
| author_sort | Thulani Tshabalala |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | There has been a recent rise in the number of medicinal plant users in Southern Africa, with approximately a million users reported to utilize these plants for various health conditions. Unfortunately, some of these plants are reportedly endangered and facing extinction due to harvesting pressure. In addition, climate change is likely to negatively affect the geographical distribution of these medicinal plants. In the current study, future greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, for future projections to 2050 and 2080 were used to simulate the effect of climate change on three medicinal plants’ (<i>Aloe ferox</i>, <i>Bowiea volubilis</i>, and <i>Dioscorea elephantipes</i>) distribution in South Africa. We studied these plant species as the International Union for Conservation of Nature stated that <i>A. ferox</i> is currently of least concern in South Africa, while <i>B. volubilis</i> and <i>D. elephantipes</i> are categorised as declining and vulnerable, respectively. Specifically, we utilised a species distribution model (i.e., the maximum entropy: MaxEnt) to investigate the effect of climate change on the future spatial distribution of medicinal plants in South Africa. In 2050 and 2080, under both RCP scenarios, the suitable habitat of the studied plant species will reduce in the country’s northern parts. Specifically, the habitat for <i>D. elephantipes</i> will totally disappear in the country’s northern parts. However, there will be slight additions of suitable habitats for the species in the country’s southern parts. Model validation indicated that the area under curve (AUC) for <i>A. ferox</i> was 0.924 ± 0.004, while for <i>B. volubilis</i> and <i>D. elephantipes</i> it was 0.884 ± 0.050 and 0.944 ± 0.030, respectively. Using the results from this study, there is a need for the long-term in situ and ex situ conservation of these medicinal plants. The results of the present study could guide the development of effective and efficient policies and strategies for managing and conserving medicinal plants in South Africa. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:10:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-79e4bc057f304ad68c46463abb1c51e9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2673-7159 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:10:21Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Conservation |
| spelling | doaj.art-79e4bc057f304ad68c46463abb1c51e92023-11-24T14:08:13ZengMDPI AGConservation2673-71592022-11-012469470810.3390/conservation2040045Predicting the Geographical Distribution Shift of Medicinal Plants in South Africa Due to Climate ChangeThulani Tshabalala0Onisimo Mutanga1Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman2School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal Pietermaritzburg, Private Bag X01, Scottsville 3209, South AfricaSchool of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal Pietermaritzburg, Private Bag X01, Scottsville 3209, South AfricaData Management, Modelling and Geo-Information Unit, International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), Nairobi 00100, KenyaThere has been a recent rise in the number of medicinal plant users in Southern Africa, with approximately a million users reported to utilize these plants for various health conditions. Unfortunately, some of these plants are reportedly endangered and facing extinction due to harvesting pressure. In addition, climate change is likely to negatively affect the geographical distribution of these medicinal plants. In the current study, future greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, for future projections to 2050 and 2080 were used to simulate the effect of climate change on three medicinal plants’ (<i>Aloe ferox</i>, <i>Bowiea volubilis</i>, and <i>Dioscorea elephantipes</i>) distribution in South Africa. We studied these plant species as the International Union for Conservation of Nature stated that <i>A. ferox</i> is currently of least concern in South Africa, while <i>B. volubilis</i> and <i>D. elephantipes</i> are categorised as declining and vulnerable, respectively. Specifically, we utilised a species distribution model (i.e., the maximum entropy: MaxEnt) to investigate the effect of climate change on the future spatial distribution of medicinal plants in South Africa. In 2050 and 2080, under both RCP scenarios, the suitable habitat of the studied plant species will reduce in the country’s northern parts. Specifically, the habitat for <i>D. elephantipes</i> will totally disappear in the country’s northern parts. However, there will be slight additions of suitable habitats for the species in the country’s southern parts. Model validation indicated that the area under curve (AUC) for <i>A. ferox</i> was 0.924 ± 0.004, while for <i>B. volubilis</i> and <i>D. elephantipes</i> it was 0.884 ± 0.050 and 0.944 ± 0.030, respectively. Using the results from this study, there is a need for the long-term in situ and ex situ conservation of these medicinal plants. The results of the present study could guide the development of effective and efficient policies and strategies for managing and conserving medicinal plants in South Africa.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7159/2/4/45<i>Aloe ferox</i><i>Bowiea volubilis</i><i>Dioscorea elephantipes</i>MaxEntspecies distribution modellingspecies vulnerability |
| spellingShingle | Thulani Tshabalala Onisimo Mutanga Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman Predicting the Geographical Distribution Shift of Medicinal Plants in South Africa Due to Climate Change Conservation <i>Aloe ferox</i> <i>Bowiea volubilis</i> <i>Dioscorea elephantipes</i> MaxEnt species distribution modelling species vulnerability |
| title | Predicting the Geographical Distribution Shift of Medicinal Plants in South Africa Due to Climate Change |
| title_full | Predicting the Geographical Distribution Shift of Medicinal Plants in South Africa Due to Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the Geographical Distribution Shift of Medicinal Plants in South Africa Due to Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Geographical Distribution Shift of Medicinal Plants in South Africa Due to Climate Change |
| title_short | Predicting the Geographical Distribution Shift of Medicinal Plants in South Africa Due to Climate Change |
| title_sort | predicting the geographical distribution shift of medicinal plants in south africa due to climate change |
| topic | <i>Aloe ferox</i> <i>Bowiea volubilis</i> <i>Dioscorea elephantipes</i> MaxEnt species distribution modelling species vulnerability |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7159/2/4/45 |
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