Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

To halt ongoing loss in biodiversity, there is a need for landscape-level management recommendations that address cumulative impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on wildlife habitat. We examined the cumulative effects of logging, roads, land-use change, fire, and bark beetle outbreaks o...

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Main Authors: Andrea R. Norris, Leonardo Frid, Chloé Debyser, Krista L. De Groot, Jeffrey Thomas, Adam Lee, Kimberly M. Dohms, Andrew Robinson, Wendy Easton, Kathy Martin, Kristina L. Cockle
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-05-01
Series:Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.635872/full
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author Andrea R. Norris
Leonardo Frid
Chloé Debyser
Krista L. De Groot
Jeffrey Thomas
Adam Lee
Kimberly M. Dohms
Andrew Robinson
Wendy Easton
Kathy Martin
Kathy Martin
Kristina L. Cockle
author_facet Andrea R. Norris
Leonardo Frid
Chloé Debyser
Krista L. De Groot
Jeffrey Thomas
Adam Lee
Kimberly M. Dohms
Andrew Robinson
Wendy Easton
Kathy Martin
Kathy Martin
Kristina L. Cockle
author_sort Andrea R. Norris
collection DOAJ
description To halt ongoing loss in biodiversity, there is a need for landscape-level management recommendations that address cumulative impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on wildlife habitat. We examined the cumulative effects of logging, roads, land-use change, fire, and bark beetle outbreaks on future habitat for olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi), a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, in Canada’s western boreal forest. To predict the occurrence of olive-sided flycatcher we developed a suite of habitat suitability models using point count surveys (1997–2011) spatially- and temporally-matched with forest inventory data. Flycatcher occurrence was positively associated with small (∼10 ha) 10- to 20-year-old clearcuts, and with 10–100% tree mortality due to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, but we found no association with roads or distance to water. We used the parameter estimates from the best-fit habitat suitability models to inform spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models to project change in habitat availability from 2020 to 2050 under six alternative scenarios (three management × two fire alternatives). The simulation models projected that the cumulative effects of land use conversion, forest harvesting, and fire will reduce the area of olive-sided flycatcher habitat by 16–18% under Business As Usual management scenarios and by 11–13% under scenarios that include protection of 30% of the land base. Scenarios limiting the size of all clearcuts to ≤10 ha resulted in a median habitat loss of 4–6%, but projections were highly variable. Under all three management alternatives, a 50% increase in fire frequency (expected due to climate change) exacerbated habitat loss. The projected losses of habitat in western boreal forest, even with an increase in protected areas, imply that reversing the ongoing population declines of olive-sided flycatcher and other migratory birds will require attention to forest management beyond protected areas. Further work should examine the effects of multiple stressors on the demographic mechanisms driving change in aerial insectivore populations, including stressors on the wintering grounds in South America, and should aim to adapt the design of protected areas and forest management policies to projected climate-driven increases in the size and frequency of wildfires.
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spelling doaj.art-7a232c7612de4362a2ad63025884e9732022-12-21T22:12:13ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution2296-701X2021-05-01910.3389/fevo.2021.635872635872Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)Andrea R. Norris0Leonardo Frid1Chloé Debyser2Krista L. De Groot3Jeffrey Thomas4Adam Lee5Kimberly M. Dohms6Andrew Robinson7Wendy Easton8Kathy Martin9Kathy Martin10Kristina L. Cockle11Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Delta, BC, CanadaApex Resource Management Solutions, Ottawa, ON, CanadaApex Resource Management Solutions, Ottawa, ON, CanadaCanadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Delta, BC, CanadaCanadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Delta, BC, CanadaCanadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Delta, BC, CanadaCanadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Delta, BC, CanadaCanadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Delta, BC, CanadaCanadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Delta, BC, CanadaDepartment of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CanadaWildlife Research and Landscape Science, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Delta, BC, CanadaInstituto de Biología Subtropical–Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cient ficas y Técnicas–Universidad Nacional de Misiones, Puerto Iguazú, ArgentinaTo halt ongoing loss in biodiversity, there is a need for landscape-level management recommendations that address cumulative impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on wildlife habitat. We examined the cumulative effects of logging, roads, land-use change, fire, and bark beetle outbreaks on future habitat for olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi), a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, in Canada’s western boreal forest. To predict the occurrence of olive-sided flycatcher we developed a suite of habitat suitability models using point count surveys (1997–2011) spatially- and temporally-matched with forest inventory data. Flycatcher occurrence was positively associated with small (∼10 ha) 10- to 20-year-old clearcuts, and with 10–100% tree mortality due to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, but we found no association with roads or distance to water. We used the parameter estimates from the best-fit habitat suitability models to inform spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models to project change in habitat availability from 2020 to 2050 under six alternative scenarios (three management × two fire alternatives). The simulation models projected that the cumulative effects of land use conversion, forest harvesting, and fire will reduce the area of olive-sided flycatcher habitat by 16–18% under Business As Usual management scenarios and by 11–13% under scenarios that include protection of 30% of the land base. Scenarios limiting the size of all clearcuts to ≤10 ha resulted in a median habitat loss of 4–6%, but projections were highly variable. Under all three management alternatives, a 50% increase in fire frequency (expected due to climate change) exacerbated habitat loss. The projected losses of habitat in western boreal forest, even with an increase in protected areas, imply that reversing the ongoing population declines of olive-sided flycatcher and other migratory birds will require attention to forest management beyond protected areas. Further work should examine the effects of multiple stressors on the demographic mechanisms driving change in aerial insectivore populations, including stressors on the wintering grounds in South America, and should aim to adapt the design of protected areas and forest management policies to projected climate-driven increases in the size and frequency of wildfires.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.635872/fullaerial insectivorebark beetle outbreakclearcut loggingclimate changecumulative effectshabitat suitability
spellingShingle Andrea R. Norris
Leonardo Frid
Chloé Debyser
Krista L. De Groot
Jeffrey Thomas
Adam Lee
Kimberly M. Dohms
Andrew Robinson
Wendy Easton
Kathy Martin
Kathy Martin
Kristina L. Cockle
Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
aerial insectivore
bark beetle outbreak
clearcut logging
climate change
cumulative effects
habitat suitability
title Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)
title_full Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)
title_fullStr Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)
title_short Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)
title_sort forecasting the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on breeding habitat for a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird the olive sided flycatcher contopus cooperi
topic aerial insectivore
bark beetle outbreak
clearcut logging
climate change
cumulative effects
habitat suitability
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.635872/full
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