Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan Strait
China’s improving nuclear arsenal, the United States’ deteriorating “strategic ambiguity” policy, and Taiwan’s increasing identification as independent polity raises the prospect of conflict over Taiwan. But the use of nuclear weapons in the Taiwan Straits would happen only under extreme circumstanc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/25751654.2022.2055912 |
| _version_ | 1818207815579205632 |
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| author | Sheryn Lee |
| author_facet | Sheryn Lee |
| author_sort | Sheryn Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | China’s improving nuclear arsenal, the United States’ deteriorating “strategic ambiguity” policy, and Taiwan’s increasing identification as independent polity raises the prospect of conflict over Taiwan. But the use of nuclear weapons in the Taiwan Straits would happen only under extreme circumstances. This paper argues Beijing is increasing its use of gray-zone tactics with conventional and non-military means below the level of nuclear provocation to tip the cross-straits military balance in its favor. This report first examines China’s aim to achieve unification with Taiwan via its use of threat and use of force in both the nuclear and conventional domains through a close examination of the three historical cross-strait crises. Second, it outlines the geostrategic and geopolitical rationale for continued American support for Taiwan in an era of United States-China competition. Lastly, it explores the role of Taiwan’s consolidating democracy and how Taipei responds to Beijing’s coercion. The report concludes with consideration of how the Taiwan Straits case may affect the possibility of nuclear weapons use in Northeast Asia, including in Japan and on the Korean peninsula. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T04:34:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7a28880971bb4b28b56124669bdc418c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2575-1654 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T04:34:55Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament |
| spelling | doaj.art-7a28880971bb4b28b56124669bdc418c2022-12-22T00:38:00ZengTaylor & Francis GroupJournal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament2575-16542022-06-015sup115416610.1080/25751654.2022.2055912Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan StraitSheryn Lee0Department of Leadership and Command and Control, Swedish Defence University, Stockholm, SwedenChina’s improving nuclear arsenal, the United States’ deteriorating “strategic ambiguity” policy, and Taiwan’s increasing identification as independent polity raises the prospect of conflict over Taiwan. But the use of nuclear weapons in the Taiwan Straits would happen only under extreme circumstances. This paper argues Beijing is increasing its use of gray-zone tactics with conventional and non-military means below the level of nuclear provocation to tip the cross-straits military balance in its favor. This report first examines China’s aim to achieve unification with Taiwan via its use of threat and use of force in both the nuclear and conventional domains through a close examination of the three historical cross-strait crises. Second, it outlines the geostrategic and geopolitical rationale for continued American support for Taiwan in an era of United States-China competition. Lastly, it explores the role of Taiwan’s consolidating democracy and how Taipei responds to Beijing’s coercion. The report concludes with consideration of how the Taiwan Straits case may affect the possibility of nuclear weapons use in Northeast Asia, including in Japan and on the Korean peninsula.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/25751654.2022.2055912Strategic ambiguitycross-straits relationsnuclear domino effectUS-China relationsTaiwanese independence |
| spellingShingle | Sheryn Lee Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan Strait Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Strategic ambiguity cross-straits relations nuclear domino effect US-China relations Taiwanese independence |
| title | Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan Strait |
| title_full | Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan Strait |
| title_fullStr | Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan Strait |
| title_full_unstemmed | Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan Strait |
| title_short | Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan Strait |
| title_sort | towards instability the shifting nuclear conventional dynamics in the taiwan strait |
| topic | Strategic ambiguity cross-straits relations nuclear domino effect US-China relations Taiwanese independence |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/25751654.2022.2055912 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sherynlee towardsinstabilitytheshiftingnuclearconventionaldynamicsinthetaiwanstrait |