Using Bayesian deep learning approaches for uncertainty-aware building energy surrogate models
Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the original model.Bayesian methods can quantify that uncertainty, an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Energy and AI |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666546820300392 |
| _version_ | 1818849452317736960 |
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| author | Paul Westermann Ralph Evins |
| author_facet | Paul Westermann Ralph Evins |
| author_sort | Paul Westermann |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the original model.Bayesian methods can quantify that uncertainty, and deep learning models exist that follow the Bayesian paradigm. These models, namely Bayesian neural networks and Gaussian process models, enable us to give predictions together with an estimate of the model’s uncertainty. As a result we can derive uncertainty-aware surrogate models that can automatically identify unseen design samples that may cause large emulation errors. For these samples the high-fidelity model can be queried instead. This paper outlines how the Bayesian paradigm allows us to hybridize fast but approximate and slow but accurate models.In this paper, we train two types of Bayesian models, dropout neural networks and stochastic variational Gaussian Process models, to emulate a complex high dimensional building energy performance simulation problem. The surrogate model processes 35 building design parameters (inputs) to estimate 12 annual building energy performance metrics (outputs). We benchmark both approaches, prove their accuracy to be competitive, and show that errors can be reduced by up to 30% when the 10% of samples with the highest uncertainty are transferred to the high-fidelity model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T06:33:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7a49e0e6b4994022a695aae8b7b0a625 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-5468 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T06:33:28Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy and AI |
| spelling | doaj.art-7a49e0e6b4994022a695aae8b7b0a6252022-12-21T20:32:17ZengElsevierEnergy and AI2666-54682021-03-013100039Using Bayesian deep learning approaches for uncertainty-aware building energy surrogate modelsPaul Westermann0Ralph Evins1Corresponding author.; Energy and Cities Group Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria, CanadaEnergy and Cities Group Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria, CanadaFast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the original model.Bayesian methods can quantify that uncertainty, and deep learning models exist that follow the Bayesian paradigm. These models, namely Bayesian neural networks and Gaussian process models, enable us to give predictions together with an estimate of the model’s uncertainty. As a result we can derive uncertainty-aware surrogate models that can automatically identify unseen design samples that may cause large emulation errors. For these samples the high-fidelity model can be queried instead. This paper outlines how the Bayesian paradigm allows us to hybridize fast but approximate and slow but accurate models.In this paper, we train two types of Bayesian models, dropout neural networks and stochastic variational Gaussian Process models, to emulate a complex high dimensional building energy performance simulation problem. The surrogate model processes 35 building design parameters (inputs) to estimate 12 annual building energy performance metrics (outputs). We benchmark both approaches, prove their accuracy to be competitive, and show that errors can be reduced by up to 30% when the 10% of samples with the highest uncertainty are transferred to the high-fidelity model.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666546820300392Surrogate modellingMetamodelBuilding performance simulationUncertaintyBayesian deep learningGaussian Process |
| spellingShingle | Paul Westermann Ralph Evins Using Bayesian deep learning approaches for uncertainty-aware building energy surrogate models Energy and AI Surrogate modelling Metamodel Building performance simulation Uncertainty Bayesian deep learning Gaussian Process |
| title | Using Bayesian deep learning approaches for uncertainty-aware building energy surrogate models |
| title_full | Using Bayesian deep learning approaches for uncertainty-aware building energy surrogate models |
| title_fullStr | Using Bayesian deep learning approaches for uncertainty-aware building energy surrogate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using Bayesian deep learning approaches for uncertainty-aware building energy surrogate models |
| title_short | Using Bayesian deep learning approaches for uncertainty-aware building energy surrogate models |
| title_sort | using bayesian deep learning approaches for uncertainty aware building energy surrogate models |
| topic | Surrogate modelling Metamodel Building performance simulation Uncertainty Bayesian deep learning Gaussian Process |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666546820300392 |
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