Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency
Abstract Background The application of different approaches calculating the anthropogenic carbon net flux from land, leads to estimates that vary considerably. One reason for these variations is the extent to which approaches consider forest land to be “managed” by humans, and thus contributing to t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Carbon Balance and Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-023-00240-2 |
| _version_ | 1797453950119575552 |
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| author | Viola Heinrich Jo House David A. Gibbs Nancy Harris Martin Herold Giacomo Grassi Roberta Cantinho Thais M. Rosan Barbara Zimbres Julia Z. Shimbo Joana Melo Tristram Hales Stephen Sitch Luiz E. O. C. Aragão |
| author_facet | Viola Heinrich Jo House David A. Gibbs Nancy Harris Martin Herold Giacomo Grassi Roberta Cantinho Thais M. Rosan Barbara Zimbres Julia Z. Shimbo Joana Melo Tristram Hales Stephen Sitch Luiz E. O. C. Aragão |
| author_sort | Viola Heinrich |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The application of different approaches calculating the anthropogenic carbon net flux from land, leads to estimates that vary considerably. One reason for these variations is the extent to which approaches consider forest land to be “managed” by humans, and thus contributing to the net anthropogenic flux. Global Earth Observation (EO) datasets characterising spatio-temporal changes in land cover and carbon stocks provide an independent and consistent approach to estimate forest carbon fluxes. These can be compared against results reported in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) to support accurate and timely measuring, reporting and verification (MRV). Using Brazil as a primary case study, with additional analysis in Indonesia and Malaysia, we compare a Global EO-based dataset of forest carbon fluxes to results reported in NGHGIs. Results Between 2001 and 2020, the EO-derived estimates of all forest-related emissions and removals indicate that Brazil was a net sink of carbon (− 0.2 GtCO2yr−1), while Brazil’s NGHGI reported a net carbon source (+ 0.8 GtCO2yr−1). After adjusting the EO estimate to use the Brazilian NGHGI definition of managed forest and other assumptions used in the inventory’s methodology, the EO net flux became a source of + 0.6 GtCO2yr−1, comparable to the NGHGI. Remaining discrepancies are due largely to differing carbon removal factors and forest types applied in the two datasets. In Indonesia, the EO and NGHGI net flux estimates were similar (+ 0.6 GtCO2 yr−1), but in Malaysia, they differed in both magnitude and sign (NGHGI: -0.2 GtCO2 yr−1; Global EO: + 0.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Spatially explicit datasets on forest types were not publicly available for analysis from either NGHGI, limiting the possibility of detailed adjustments. Conclusions By adjusting the EO dataset to improve comparability with carbon fluxes estimated for managed forests in the Brazilian NGHGI, initially diverging estimates were largely reconciled and remaining differences can be explained. Despite limited spatial data available for Indonesia and Malaysia, our comparison indicated specific aspects where differing approaches may explain divergence, including uncertainties and inaccuracies. Our study highlights the importance of enhanced transparency, as set out by the Paris Agreement, to enable alignment between different approaches for independent measuring and verification. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:30:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7a77a193030d44c286c75922d0878cbe |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1750-0680 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:30:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Carbon Balance and Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-7a77a193030d44c286c75922d0878cbe2023-11-26T12:17:33ZengBMCCarbon Balance and Management1750-06802023-11-0118112410.1186/s13021-023-00240-2Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparencyViola Heinrich0Jo House1David A. Gibbs2Nancy Harris3Martin Herold4Giacomo Grassi5Roberta Cantinho6Thais M. Rosan7Barbara Zimbres8Julia Z. Shimbo9Joana Melo10Tristram Hales11Stephen Sitch12Luiz E. O. C. Aragão13School of Geographical Sciences, University of BristolSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of BristolWorld Resources InstituteWorld Resources InstituteSection 1.4 Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Helmholtz GFZ German Research Centre of GeosciencesJoint Research Centre, European CommissionCentre for Sustainable Development (CDS), University of Brasília (UnB)Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of ExeterAmazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM)Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM)Joint Research Centre, European CommissionSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff UniversityFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of ExeterFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of ExeterAbstract Background The application of different approaches calculating the anthropogenic carbon net flux from land, leads to estimates that vary considerably. One reason for these variations is the extent to which approaches consider forest land to be “managed” by humans, and thus contributing to the net anthropogenic flux. Global Earth Observation (EO) datasets characterising spatio-temporal changes in land cover and carbon stocks provide an independent and consistent approach to estimate forest carbon fluxes. These can be compared against results reported in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) to support accurate and timely measuring, reporting and verification (MRV). Using Brazil as a primary case study, with additional analysis in Indonesia and Malaysia, we compare a Global EO-based dataset of forest carbon fluxes to results reported in NGHGIs. Results Between 2001 and 2020, the EO-derived estimates of all forest-related emissions and removals indicate that Brazil was a net sink of carbon (− 0.2 GtCO2yr−1), while Brazil’s NGHGI reported a net carbon source (+ 0.8 GtCO2yr−1). After adjusting the EO estimate to use the Brazilian NGHGI definition of managed forest and other assumptions used in the inventory’s methodology, the EO net flux became a source of + 0.6 GtCO2yr−1, comparable to the NGHGI. Remaining discrepancies are due largely to differing carbon removal factors and forest types applied in the two datasets. In Indonesia, the EO and NGHGI net flux estimates were similar (+ 0.6 GtCO2 yr−1), but in Malaysia, they differed in both magnitude and sign (NGHGI: -0.2 GtCO2 yr−1; Global EO: + 0.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Spatially explicit datasets on forest types were not publicly available for analysis from either NGHGI, limiting the possibility of detailed adjustments. Conclusions By adjusting the EO dataset to improve comparability with carbon fluxes estimated for managed forests in the Brazilian NGHGI, initially diverging estimates were largely reconciled and remaining differences can be explained. Despite limited spatial data available for Indonesia and Malaysia, our comparison indicated specific aspects where differing approaches may explain divergence, including uncertainties and inaccuracies. Our study highlights the importance of enhanced transparency, as set out by the Paris Agreement, to enable alignment between different approaches for independent measuring and verification.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-023-00240-2ForestsCO2 fluxLULUCFRemoval factorsTransparencyManaged land proxy |
| spellingShingle | Viola Heinrich Jo House David A. Gibbs Nancy Harris Martin Herold Giacomo Grassi Roberta Cantinho Thais M. Rosan Barbara Zimbres Julia Z. Shimbo Joana Melo Tristram Hales Stephen Sitch Luiz E. O. C. Aragão Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency Carbon Balance and Management Forests CO2 flux LULUCF Removal factors Transparency Managed land proxy |
| title | Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency |
| title_full | Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency |
| title_fullStr | Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency |
| title_short | Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency |
| title_sort | mind the gap reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency |
| topic | Forests CO2 flux LULUCF Removal factors Transparency Managed land proxy |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-023-00240-2 |
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