El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition
Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry in predictability on springtime initial condition remains unclear. From the perspective of the spring predictability barrier (SPB), this paper investigates the ENSO asymmetry in SPB and explores the potential factors that may lead to this asymme...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-08-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00446-8 |
| _version_ | 1797577181071671296 |
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| author | Hui Chen Yishuai Jin Xingchen Shen Xiaopei Lin Ruikun Hu |
| author_facet | Hui Chen Yishuai Jin Xingchen Shen Xiaopei Lin Ruikun Hu |
| author_sort | Hui Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry in predictability on springtime initial condition remains unclear. From the perspective of the spring predictability barrier (SPB), this paper investigates the ENSO asymmetry in SPB and explores the potential factors that may lead to this asymmetry. Both the observation and 29 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models show that the spring sea surface temperature (SST) persistence is significantly higher in El Niño years than that in La Niña years, and the SPB intensity is stronger in La Niña years than that in El Niño years. Through the recharge oscillator model, observation and CMIP6 models, we demonstrate that the nonlinear wind stress response to SST anomalies in spring is the main cause of the asymmetric SPB intensity. By the mixed-layer heat budget of the tropical Pacific in the spring, we further identify that a stronger response of zonal wind stress in El Niño events can cause a stronger zonal advection feedback, which finally leads to a weaker SPB and enhances the predictability of El Niño. In contrast, the cooling SST in the spring only leads to weak easterly anomalies, the zonal advection feedback is relatively weaker, thus SPB is stronger and the predictability of La Niña is lower. From the perspective of SPB, we suggest that El Niño is more predictable than La Niña. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:04:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7a7a303da6204fdbb6fe34e68ab7f963 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:04:21Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-7a7a303da6204fdbb6fe34e68ab7f9632023-11-19T12:50:41ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-08-01611910.1038/s41612-023-00446-8El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial conditionHui Chen0Yishuai Jin1Xingchen Shen2Xiaopei Lin3Ruikun Hu4Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of ChinaFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of ChinaScience & Technology on Integrated Information System Laboratory, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of SciencesFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural ResourcesAbstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry in predictability on springtime initial condition remains unclear. From the perspective of the spring predictability barrier (SPB), this paper investigates the ENSO asymmetry in SPB and explores the potential factors that may lead to this asymmetry. Both the observation and 29 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models show that the spring sea surface temperature (SST) persistence is significantly higher in El Niño years than that in La Niña years, and the SPB intensity is stronger in La Niña years than that in El Niño years. Through the recharge oscillator model, observation and CMIP6 models, we demonstrate that the nonlinear wind stress response to SST anomalies in spring is the main cause of the asymmetric SPB intensity. By the mixed-layer heat budget of the tropical Pacific in the spring, we further identify that a stronger response of zonal wind stress in El Niño events can cause a stronger zonal advection feedback, which finally leads to a weaker SPB and enhances the predictability of El Niño. In contrast, the cooling SST in the spring only leads to weak easterly anomalies, the zonal advection feedback is relatively weaker, thus SPB is stronger and the predictability of La Niña is lower. From the perspective of SPB, we suggest that El Niño is more predictable than La Niña.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00446-8 |
| spellingShingle | Hui Chen Yishuai Jin Xingchen Shen Xiaopei Lin Ruikun Hu El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition |
| title_full | El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition |
| title_fullStr | El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition |
| title_full_unstemmed | El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition |
| title_short | El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition |
| title_sort | el nino and la nina asymmetry in short term predictability on springtime initial condition |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00446-8 |
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