Tradeoff analysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in China
China is the world's largest consumer of pork and grains. However, African swine fever (ASF) and the COVID-19 outbreak have greatly impacted the pork supply and food security in China. How can food security and the pork supply be ensured under the dual impacts of COVID-19 and ASF? This is a maj...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Geography and Sustainability |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683922000128 |
| _version_ | 1811299796685684736 |
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| author | Huizong Yao Chuanfu Zang Xiaoxing Zuo Yuyang Xian Yongquan Lu Yutong Huang Xianbing Li |
| author_facet | Huizong Yao Chuanfu Zang Xiaoxing Zuo Yuyang Xian Yongquan Lu Yutong Huang Xianbing Li |
| author_sort | Huizong Yao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | China is the world's largest consumer of pork and grains. However, African swine fever (ASF) and the COVID-19 outbreak have greatly impacted the pork supply and food security in China. How can food security and the pork supply be ensured under the dual impacts of COVID-19 and ASF? This is a major problem to be urgently solved by the Chinese government. This study indicated that the main pork production and sales areas in China were separated, which reflected the spatial imbalance between the supply and demand. The total area of suitable selected sites for pig farms in China is 21.5 million ha. If only the areas with levels of high and moderate suitability are considered as potential sites for pig farms, the potential pork production can reach 56.1 million tons in China, which is slightly lower than demand. Due to the impact of the ASF epidemic, the food consumed by pigs has been reduced by 34.7 million tons. However, with increasing pork productivity in the future, the self-sufficiency rate of grains may further decline. On the premise that the quality of people's life is not affected, the diversification of meat supply channels should be realized in an orderly and sustainable way, which might alleviate the pressure on food supply. This study provides a theoretical reference for the spatiotemporal layout of the swine industry and addresses the issue of food security in China under the influence of ASF and the COVID-19 outbreak. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:41:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7abca8d4b6084f1783c8c0b847229a51 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-6839 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:41:11Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geography and Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-7abca8d4b6084f1783c8c0b847229a512022-12-22T02:57:43ZengElsevierGeography and Sustainability2666-68392022-03-01313243Tradeoff analysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in ChinaHuizong Yao0Chuanfu Zang1Xiaoxing Zuo2Yuyang Xian3Yongquan Lu4Yutong Huang5Xianbing Li6Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China; School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, ChinaSchool of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China; Corresponding author: Chuanfu Zang, School of Geography, South China Normal University, Zhongshan Road 55#, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, 510631, ChinaSouth University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen 518055, ChinaSchool of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, ChinaSchool of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, ChinaSchool of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, ChinaSchool of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, ChinaChina is the world's largest consumer of pork and grains. However, African swine fever (ASF) and the COVID-19 outbreak have greatly impacted the pork supply and food security in China. How can food security and the pork supply be ensured under the dual impacts of COVID-19 and ASF? This is a major problem to be urgently solved by the Chinese government. This study indicated that the main pork production and sales areas in China were separated, which reflected the spatial imbalance between the supply and demand. The total area of suitable selected sites for pig farms in China is 21.5 million ha. If only the areas with levels of high and moderate suitability are considered as potential sites for pig farms, the potential pork production can reach 56.1 million tons in China, which is slightly lower than demand. Due to the impact of the ASF epidemic, the food consumed by pigs has been reduced by 34.7 million tons. However, with increasing pork productivity in the future, the self-sufficiency rate of grains may further decline. On the premise that the quality of people's life is not affected, the diversification of meat supply channels should be realized in an orderly and sustainable way, which might alleviate the pressure on food supply. This study provides a theoretical reference for the spatiotemporal layout of the swine industry and addresses the issue of food security in China under the influence of ASF and the COVID-19 outbreak.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683922000128African swine feverCOVID-19 outbreakSuitability analysisFood securityPork production potential |
| spellingShingle | Huizong Yao Chuanfu Zang Xiaoxing Zuo Yuyang Xian Yongquan Lu Yutong Huang Xianbing Li Tradeoff analysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in China Geography and Sustainability African swine fever COVID-19 outbreak Suitability analysis Food security Pork production potential |
| title | Tradeoff analysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in China |
| title_full | Tradeoff analysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in China |
| title_fullStr | Tradeoff analysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tradeoff analysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in China |
| title_short | Tradeoff analysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in China |
| title_sort | tradeoff analysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of african swine fever and the covid 19 outbreak in china |
| topic | African swine fever COVID-19 outbreak Suitability analysis Food security Pork production potential |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683922000128 |
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