Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts
To cope with interannual climate variability, many farmers in tropical and sub-tropical regions choose crop varieties that fit seasonal climate conditions. Therefore, seed demand for different varieties, such as early- or late-maturing cultivars, varies between years. Resulting mismatches between re...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000729 |
| _version_ | 1827632574749474816 |
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| author | Jonathan Steinke Berta Ortiz-Crespo Jacob van Etten Gareth Denis Borman Mohammed Hassena Marlene Kretschmer David A. MacLeod Dean Muungani |
| author_facet | Jonathan Steinke Berta Ortiz-Crespo Jacob van Etten Gareth Denis Borman Mohammed Hassena Marlene Kretschmer David A. MacLeod Dean Muungani |
| author_sort | Jonathan Steinke |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To cope with interannual climate variability, many farmers in tropical and sub-tropical regions choose crop varieties that fit seasonal climate conditions. Therefore, seed demand for different varieties, such as early- or late-maturing cultivars, varies between years. Resulting mismatches between relatively constant supply and variable demand create losses for both seed suppliers and farmers. Because demand for seed of different varieties is influenced by seasonal climate, however, probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts could help seed suppliers better anticipate upcoming seed demand. To explore this idea, we engaged decision-makers from seed supply organizations in Zimbabwe and Ethiopia. Through a participatory design process, we identified opportunities and challenges for using seasonal rainfall forecasts to inform seed supply decisions. In a case study of maize seed sales in Zimbabwe, we tested our assumptions and iteratively devised a systematic procedure for forecast-based planning in seed supply, relying on free online data sources and expert deliberations. We found that currently accessible rainfall forecasts could indeed be useful for prioritizing likely high-demand varieties during the stages of seed treatment, packaging, and logistics. In practice, though, more flexible and adaptive management of seed supply pipelines might be required to make use of seed demand forecasts. In the future, targeting farmers with climate forecasts along with recommended variety portfolios may strengthen the association between seasonal climate and farmers’ variety demand, increasing the accuracy of demand anticipation. This study highlights opportunities for increased case-specific collaboration between climate scientists and the seed sector to make seasonal forecast information operational. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:46:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7b45224a7fe24d6da6ded6f627758740 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:46:32Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-7b45224a7fe24d6da6ded6f6277587402023-11-27T04:14:54ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072023-12-0132100410Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecastsJonathan Steinke0Berta Ortiz-Crespo1Jacob van Etten2Gareth Denis Borman3Mohammed Hassena4Marlene Kretschmer5David A. MacLeod6Dean Muungani7Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Digital Inclusion, Parc Scientifique Agropolis II, Montpellier 34397, France; Corresponding author.Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Digital Inclusion, Parc Scientifique Agropolis II, Montpellier 34397, FranceAlliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Digital Inclusion, Parc Scientifique Agropolis II, Montpellier 34397, FranceWageningen Centre for Development Innovation, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 88, Wageningen 6700 AB, The NetherlandsStichting Wageningen Research Ethiopia, Bole 14/15, Addis Ababa, EthiopiaUniversity of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading RG6 6ET, United KingdomUniversity of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol BS8 1SS, United KingdomInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture, PMB 5320, Oyo Road, Ibadan 200001, Nigeria; Wageningen University & Research, Plant Production Systems Group, P.O. Box 430, Wageningen 6700 AK, The NetherlandsTo cope with interannual climate variability, many farmers in tropical and sub-tropical regions choose crop varieties that fit seasonal climate conditions. Therefore, seed demand for different varieties, such as early- or late-maturing cultivars, varies between years. Resulting mismatches between relatively constant supply and variable demand create losses for both seed suppliers and farmers. Because demand for seed of different varieties is influenced by seasonal climate, however, probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts could help seed suppliers better anticipate upcoming seed demand. To explore this idea, we engaged decision-makers from seed supply organizations in Zimbabwe and Ethiopia. Through a participatory design process, we identified opportunities and challenges for using seasonal rainfall forecasts to inform seed supply decisions. In a case study of maize seed sales in Zimbabwe, we tested our assumptions and iteratively devised a systematic procedure for forecast-based planning in seed supply, relying on free online data sources and expert deliberations. We found that currently accessible rainfall forecasts could indeed be useful for prioritizing likely high-demand varieties during the stages of seed treatment, packaging, and logistics. In practice, though, more flexible and adaptive management of seed supply pipelines might be required to make use of seed demand forecasts. In the future, targeting farmers with climate forecasts along with recommended variety portfolios may strengthen the association between seasonal climate and farmers’ variety demand, increasing the accuracy of demand anticipation. This study highlights opportunities for increased case-specific collaboration between climate scientists and the seed sector to make seasonal forecast information operational.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000729Seed supplySeasonal climate forecastsForesightDemand forecastingScenario analysisParticipatory design |
| spellingShingle | Jonathan Steinke Berta Ortiz-Crespo Jacob van Etten Gareth Denis Borman Mohammed Hassena Marlene Kretschmer David A. MacLeod Dean Muungani Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts Climate Services Seed supply Seasonal climate forecasts Foresight Demand forecasting Scenario analysis Participatory design |
| title | Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_full | Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_short | Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_sort | seasonal seed scenario planning co design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts |
| topic | Seed supply Seasonal climate forecasts Foresight Demand forecasting Scenario analysis Participatory design |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000729 |
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