Prediction of clinical trial enrollment rates
Clinical trials represent a critical milestone of translational and clinical sciences. However, poor recruitment to clinical trials has been a long standing problem affecting institutions all over the world. One way to reduce the cost incurred by insufficient enrollment is to minimize initiating tri...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8870517/?tool=EBI |
| _version_ | 1818985426111692800 |
|---|---|
| author | Cameron Bieganek Constantin Aliferis Sisi Ma |
| author_facet | Cameron Bieganek Constantin Aliferis Sisi Ma |
| author_sort | Cameron Bieganek |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Clinical trials represent a critical milestone of translational and clinical sciences. However, poor recruitment to clinical trials has been a long standing problem affecting institutions all over the world. One way to reduce the cost incurred by insufficient enrollment is to minimize initiating trials that are most likely to fall short of their enrollment goal. Hence, the ability to predict which proposed trials will meet enrollment goals prior to the start of the trial is highly beneficial. In the current study, we leveraged a data set extracted from ClinicalTrials.gov that consists of 46,724 U.S. based clinical trials from 1990 to 2020. We constructed 4,636 candidate predictors based on data collected by ClinicalTrials.gov and external sources for enrollment rate prediction using various state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Taking advantage of a nested time series cross-validation design, our models resulted in good predictive performance that is generalizable to future data and stable over time. Moreover, information content analysis revealed the study design related features to be the most informative feature type regarding enrollment. Compared to the performance of models built with all features, the performance of models built with study design related features is only marginally worse (AUC = 0.78 ± 0.03 vs. AUC = 0.76 ± 0.02). The results presented can form the basis for data-driven decision support systems to assess whether proposed clinical trials would likely meet their enrollment goal. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T18:34:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7b5edd38916c4334afcd89ea07db766e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T18:34:42Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-7b5edd38916c4334afcd89ea07db766e2022-12-21T19:29:58ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-01172Prediction of clinical trial enrollment ratesCameron BieganekConstantin AliferisSisi MaClinical trials represent a critical milestone of translational and clinical sciences. However, poor recruitment to clinical trials has been a long standing problem affecting institutions all over the world. One way to reduce the cost incurred by insufficient enrollment is to minimize initiating trials that are most likely to fall short of their enrollment goal. Hence, the ability to predict which proposed trials will meet enrollment goals prior to the start of the trial is highly beneficial. In the current study, we leveraged a data set extracted from ClinicalTrials.gov that consists of 46,724 U.S. based clinical trials from 1990 to 2020. We constructed 4,636 candidate predictors based on data collected by ClinicalTrials.gov and external sources for enrollment rate prediction using various state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Taking advantage of a nested time series cross-validation design, our models resulted in good predictive performance that is generalizable to future data and stable over time. Moreover, information content analysis revealed the study design related features to be the most informative feature type regarding enrollment. Compared to the performance of models built with all features, the performance of models built with study design related features is only marginally worse (AUC = 0.78 ± 0.03 vs. AUC = 0.76 ± 0.02). The results presented can form the basis for data-driven decision support systems to assess whether proposed clinical trials would likely meet their enrollment goal.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8870517/?tool=EBI |
| spellingShingle | Cameron Bieganek Constantin Aliferis Sisi Ma Prediction of clinical trial enrollment rates PLoS ONE |
| title | Prediction of clinical trial enrollment rates |
| title_full | Prediction of clinical trial enrollment rates |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of clinical trial enrollment rates |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of clinical trial enrollment rates |
| title_short | Prediction of clinical trial enrollment rates |
| title_sort | prediction of clinical trial enrollment rates |
| url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8870517/?tool=EBI |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cameronbieganek predictionofclinicaltrialenrollmentrates AT constantinaliferis predictionofclinicaltrialenrollmentrates AT sisima predictionofclinicaltrialenrollmentrates |