The evolution of distorted beliefs vs. mistaken choices under asymmetric error costs
Why do people sometimes hold unjustified beliefs and make harmful choices? Three hypotheses include (a) contemporary incentives in which some errors cost more than others, (b) cognitive biases evolved to manage ancestral incentives with variation in error costs and (c) social learning based on choic...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Evolutionary Human Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2513843X20000250/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1827995050575921152 |
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| author | Charles Efferson Ryan McKay Ernst Fehr |
| author_facet | Charles Efferson Ryan McKay Ernst Fehr |
| author_sort | Charles Efferson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Why do people sometimes hold unjustified beliefs and make harmful choices? Three hypotheses include (a) contemporary incentives in which some errors cost more than others, (b) cognitive biases evolved to manage ancestral incentives with variation in error costs and (c) social learning based on choice frequencies. With both modelling and a behavioural experiment, we examined all three mechanisms. The model and experiment support the conclusion that contemporary cost asymmetries affect choices by increasing the rate of cheap errors to reduce the rate of expensive errors. Our model shows that a cognitive bias can distort the evolution of beliefs and in turn behaviour. Unless the bias is strong, however, beliefs often evolve in the correct direction. This suggests limitations on how cognitive biases shape choices, which further indicates that detecting the behavioural consequences of biased cognition may sometimes be challenging. Our experiment used a prime intended to activate a bias called ‘hyperactive agency detection’, and the prime had no detectable effect on choices. Finally, both the model and experiment show that frequency-dependent social learning can generate choice dynamics in which some populations converge on widespread errors, but this outcome hinges on the other two mechanisms being neutral with respect to choice. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:50:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7baef370069c432d9c4b2e83c98f39cf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2513-843X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:50:33Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Evolutionary Human Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-7baef370069c432d9c4b2e83c98f39cf2023-03-09T12:32:20ZengCambridge University PressEvolutionary Human Sciences2513-843X2020-01-01210.1017/ehs.2020.25The evolution of distorted beliefs vs. mistaken choices under asymmetric error costsCharles Efferson0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8244-4497Ryan McKay1Ernst Fehr2Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne, SwitzerlandDepartment of Psychology, Royal Holloway, University of London, UKDepartment of Economics, University of Zurich, SwitzerlandWhy do people sometimes hold unjustified beliefs and make harmful choices? Three hypotheses include (a) contemporary incentives in which some errors cost more than others, (b) cognitive biases evolved to manage ancestral incentives with variation in error costs and (c) social learning based on choice frequencies. With both modelling and a behavioural experiment, we examined all three mechanisms. The model and experiment support the conclusion that contemporary cost asymmetries affect choices by increasing the rate of cheap errors to reduce the rate of expensive errors. Our model shows that a cognitive bias can distort the evolution of beliefs and in turn behaviour. Unless the bias is strong, however, beliefs often evolve in the correct direction. This suggests limitations on how cognitive biases shape choices, which further indicates that detecting the behavioural consequences of biased cognition may sometimes be challenging. Our experiment used a prime intended to activate a bias called ‘hyperactive agency detection’, and the prime had no detectable effect on choices. Finally, both the model and experiment show that frequency-dependent social learning can generate choice dynamics in which some populations converge on widespread errors, but this outcome hinges on the other two mechanisms being neutral with respect to choice.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2513843X20000250/type/journal_articleCultural evolutionerror management theoryherdingsocial learninghyperactive agency detection |
| spellingShingle | Charles Efferson Ryan McKay Ernst Fehr The evolution of distorted beliefs vs. mistaken choices under asymmetric error costs Evolutionary Human Sciences Cultural evolution error management theory herding social learning hyperactive agency detection |
| title | The evolution of distorted beliefs vs. mistaken choices under asymmetric error costs |
| title_full | The evolution of distorted beliefs vs. mistaken choices under asymmetric error costs |
| title_fullStr | The evolution of distorted beliefs vs. mistaken choices under asymmetric error costs |
| title_full_unstemmed | The evolution of distorted beliefs vs. mistaken choices under asymmetric error costs |
| title_short | The evolution of distorted beliefs vs. mistaken choices under asymmetric error costs |
| title_sort | evolution of distorted beliefs vs mistaken choices under asymmetric error costs |
| topic | Cultural evolution error management theory herding social learning hyperactive agency detection |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2513843X20000250/type/journal_article |
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