Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways
Scenarios from integrated assessment models can provide insights into how carbon budgets relate to other policy-relevant indicators by including information on how fast and by how much emissions can be reduced. Such indicators include the peak year of global emissions, the decarbonisation rate and t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075002 |
| _version_ | 1827871228118958080 |
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| author | Detlef P van Vuuren Heleen van Soest Keywan Riahi Leon Clarke Volker Krey Elmar Kriegler Joeri Rogelj Michiel Schaeffer Massimo Tavoni |
| author_facet | Detlef P van Vuuren Heleen van Soest Keywan Riahi Leon Clarke Volker Krey Elmar Kriegler Joeri Rogelj Michiel Schaeffer Massimo Tavoni |
| author_sort | Detlef P van Vuuren |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Scenarios from integrated assessment models can provide insights into how carbon budgets relate to other policy-relevant indicators by including information on how fast and by how much emissions can be reduced. Such indicators include the peak year of global emissions, the decarbonisation rate and the deployment of low-carbon technology. Here, we show typical values for these indicators for different carbon budgets, using the recently compiled IPCC scenario database, and discuss how these vary as a function of non-CO _2 forcing, energy use and policy delay. For carbon budgets of 2000 GtCO _2 and less over the 2010–2100 period, supply of low carbon technologies needs to be scaled up massively from today’s levels, unless energy use is relatively low. For the subgroup of scenarios with a budget below 1000 GtCO _2 (consistent with >66% chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels), the 2050 contribution of low-carbon technologies is generally around 50%–75%, compared to less than 20% today (range refers to the 10–90th interval of available data). |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:07:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7bc2badb50a64b7b9724c6b0ea8cc45e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:07:38Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-7bc2badb50a64b7b9724c6b0ea8cc45e2023-08-09T14:17:16ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262016-01-0111707500210.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075002Carbon budgets and energy transition pathwaysDetlef P van Vuuren0Heleen van Soest1Keywan Riahi2Leon Clarke3Volker Krey4Elmar Kriegler5Joeri Rogelj6Michiel Schaeffer7Massimo Tavoni8PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague/Bilthoven, The Netherlands; Utrecht University , Copernicus institute for sustainable development, Utrecht, The NetherlandsPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague/Bilthoven, The NetherlandsInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, AustriaPNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington DC, USAInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, AustriaPIK, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; ETH Zurich, Zürich, SwitzerlandClimate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre , PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The NetherlandsFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Milan, Italy; Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Milan, ItalyScenarios from integrated assessment models can provide insights into how carbon budgets relate to other policy-relevant indicators by including information on how fast and by how much emissions can be reduced. Such indicators include the peak year of global emissions, the decarbonisation rate and the deployment of low-carbon technology. Here, we show typical values for these indicators for different carbon budgets, using the recently compiled IPCC scenario database, and discuss how these vary as a function of non-CO _2 forcing, energy use and policy delay. For carbon budgets of 2000 GtCO _2 and less over the 2010–2100 period, supply of low carbon technologies needs to be scaled up massively from today’s levels, unless energy use is relatively low. For the subgroup of scenarios with a budget below 1000 GtCO _2 (consistent with >66% chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels), the 2050 contribution of low-carbon technologies is generally around 50%–75%, compared to less than 20% today (range refers to the 10–90th interval of available data).https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075002carbon budgetmitigation strategyclimate policyintegrated assessment |
| spellingShingle | Detlef P van Vuuren Heleen van Soest Keywan Riahi Leon Clarke Volker Krey Elmar Kriegler Joeri Rogelj Michiel Schaeffer Massimo Tavoni Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways Environmental Research Letters carbon budget mitigation strategy climate policy integrated assessment |
| title | Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways |
| title_full | Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways |
| title_fullStr | Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways |
| title_full_unstemmed | Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways |
| title_short | Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways |
| title_sort | carbon budgets and energy transition pathways |
| topic | carbon budget mitigation strategy climate policy integrated assessment |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075002 |
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