Invasion of the Land of Samurai: Potential Spread of Old-World Screwworm to Japan under Climate Change
Temperatures have fluctuated dramatically throughout our planet’s long history, and in recent decades, global warming has become a more visible indicator of climate change. Climate change has several effects on different economic sectors, especially the livestock industry. The Old-world screwworm (O...
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MDPI AG
2022-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/14/2/99 |
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| author | Eslam M. Hosni Mohamed Nasser Areej A. Al-Khalaf Kholoud A. Al-Shammery Sara Al-Ashaal Doaa Soliman |
| author_facet | Eslam M. Hosni Mohamed Nasser Areej A. Al-Khalaf Kholoud A. Al-Shammery Sara Al-Ashaal Doaa Soliman |
| author_sort | Eslam M. Hosni |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Temperatures have fluctuated dramatically throughout our planet’s long history, and in recent decades, global warming has become a more visible indicator of climate change. Climate change has several effects on different economic sectors, especially the livestock industry. The Old-world screwworm (OWS), <i>Chrysomya bezziana</i> (Villeneuve, 1914), is one of the most destructive insect pests which is invading new regions as a result of climate change. The economic loss in livestock business due to invasion of OWS was previously assessed by FAO in Iraq to be USD 8,555,000. Other areas at risk of invasion with OWS in the future include Japan. Therefore, maximum entropy implemented in MaxEnt was used to model predictive risk maps of OWS invasion to Japan based on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070. The Area Under Curve (AUC) indicates high model performance, with a value equal to 0.89 (±0.001). In addition, the True Skill Statistics (TSS) value was equal to 0.7. The resulting models indicate the unsuitability of the northern territory of Japan for invasion by OWS. The main island’s southern costs show high and very high invasion suitability, respectively, and both Kyushu and Okinawa are at high risk of invasion with OWS. The predicted risk maps can be considered a warning sign for the Japanese quarantine authority to hasten a control program in order to protect the livestock industry from this devastating pest. |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7cac334eb33e4d3e97e562a4d1791ea4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1424-2818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:09:28Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Diversity |
| spelling | doaj.art-7cac334eb33e4d3e97e562a4d1791ea42023-11-23T19:34:51ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182022-01-011429910.3390/d14020099Invasion of the Land of Samurai: Potential Spread of Old-World Screwworm to Japan under Climate ChangeEslam M. Hosni0Mohamed Nasser1Areej A. Al-Khalaf2Kholoud A. Al-Shammery3Sara Al-Ashaal4Doaa Soliman5Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, EgyptDepartment of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, EgyptBiology Department, College of Science, Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh 11671, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Biology, College of Science, Ha’il University, Ha’il 55211, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, EgyptDepartment of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, EgyptTemperatures have fluctuated dramatically throughout our planet’s long history, and in recent decades, global warming has become a more visible indicator of climate change. Climate change has several effects on different economic sectors, especially the livestock industry. The Old-world screwworm (OWS), <i>Chrysomya bezziana</i> (Villeneuve, 1914), is one of the most destructive insect pests which is invading new regions as a result of climate change. The economic loss in livestock business due to invasion of OWS was previously assessed by FAO in Iraq to be USD 8,555,000. Other areas at risk of invasion with OWS in the future include Japan. Therefore, maximum entropy implemented in MaxEnt was used to model predictive risk maps of OWS invasion to Japan based on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070. The Area Under Curve (AUC) indicates high model performance, with a value equal to 0.89 (±0.001). In addition, the True Skill Statistics (TSS) value was equal to 0.7. The resulting models indicate the unsuitability of the northern territory of Japan for invasion by OWS. The main island’s southern costs show high and very high invasion suitability, respectively, and both Kyushu and Okinawa are at high risk of invasion with OWS. The predicted risk maps can be considered a warning sign for the Japanese quarantine authority to hasten a control program in order to protect the livestock industry from this devastating pest.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/14/2/99climate changespecies distribution modelinglivestock industryold-world screwwormMaxEnt |
| spellingShingle | Eslam M. Hosni Mohamed Nasser Areej A. Al-Khalaf Kholoud A. Al-Shammery Sara Al-Ashaal Doaa Soliman Invasion of the Land of Samurai: Potential Spread of Old-World Screwworm to Japan under Climate Change Diversity climate change species distribution modeling livestock industry old-world screwworm MaxEnt |
| title | Invasion of the Land of Samurai: Potential Spread of Old-World Screwworm to Japan under Climate Change |
| title_full | Invasion of the Land of Samurai: Potential Spread of Old-World Screwworm to Japan under Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Invasion of the Land of Samurai: Potential Spread of Old-World Screwworm to Japan under Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Invasion of the Land of Samurai: Potential Spread of Old-World Screwworm to Japan under Climate Change |
| title_short | Invasion of the Land of Samurai: Potential Spread of Old-World Screwworm to Japan under Climate Change |
| title_sort | invasion of the land of samurai potential spread of old world screwworm to japan under climate change |
| topic | climate change species distribution modeling livestock industry old-world screwworm MaxEnt |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/14/2/99 |
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