Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes
Abstract Assessment of climate reanalysis data for land (ECMWF Re-Analysis v5; ERA5-Land) covering the last seven decades reveals regions where extreme daily mean temperatures are rising faster than the average rate of temperature rise of the 6 months of highest background warmth. However, such extr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-04-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00626-0 |
| _version_ | 1797219937437089792 |
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| author | Chris Huntingford Peter M. Cox Paul D. L. Ritchie Joseph J. Clarke Isobel M. Parry Mark S. Williamson |
| author_facet | Chris Huntingford Peter M. Cox Paul D. L. Ritchie Joseph J. Clarke Isobel M. Parry Mark S. Williamson |
| author_sort | Chris Huntingford |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Assessment of climate reanalysis data for land (ECMWF Re-Analysis v5; ERA5-Land) covering the last seven decades reveals regions where extreme daily mean temperatures are rising faster than the average rate of temperature rise of the 6 months of highest background warmth. However, such extreme temperature acceleration is very heterogeneous, occurring only in some places including regions of Europe, the western part of North America, parts of southeast Asia and much of South America. An ensemble average of Earth System Models (ESMs) over the same period also shows acceleration across land areas, but this enhancement is much more spatially uniform in the models than it is for ERA5-Land. Examination of projections from now to the end of the 21st Century, with ESMs driven by the highest emissions Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenario (SSP585) of future changes to atmospheric greenhouse gases, also reveals larger warming during extreme days for most land areas. The increase in high-temperature extremes is driven by different processes depending on location. In northern mid-latitudes, a key driver is often a decrease in the evaporative fraction of the available energy, consistent with soil drying. By contrast, the acceleration of high-temperature extremes in tropical Africa is primarily due to increased available energy. These two drivers combine via the surface energy balance to equal the sensible heat flux, which we find is often strongly correlated with the areas where the acceleration of high-temperature extremes is largest. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T12:41:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7cdd44bd59384bf0ad2134d72e799293 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T12:41:35Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-7cdd44bd59384bf0ad2134d72e7992932024-04-07T11:13:05ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222024-04-017111010.1038/s41612-024-00626-0Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxesChris Huntingford0Peter M. Cox1Paul D. L. Ritchie2Joseph J. Clarke3Isobel M. Parry4Mark S. Williamson5UK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of ExeterDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of ExeterDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of ExeterDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of ExeterDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of ExeterAbstract Assessment of climate reanalysis data for land (ECMWF Re-Analysis v5; ERA5-Land) covering the last seven decades reveals regions where extreme daily mean temperatures are rising faster than the average rate of temperature rise of the 6 months of highest background warmth. However, such extreme temperature acceleration is very heterogeneous, occurring only in some places including regions of Europe, the western part of North America, parts of southeast Asia and much of South America. An ensemble average of Earth System Models (ESMs) over the same period also shows acceleration across land areas, but this enhancement is much more spatially uniform in the models than it is for ERA5-Land. Examination of projections from now to the end of the 21st Century, with ESMs driven by the highest emissions Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenario (SSP585) of future changes to atmospheric greenhouse gases, also reveals larger warming during extreme days for most land areas. The increase in high-temperature extremes is driven by different processes depending on location. In northern mid-latitudes, a key driver is often a decrease in the evaporative fraction of the available energy, consistent with soil drying. By contrast, the acceleration of high-temperature extremes in tropical Africa is primarily due to increased available energy. These two drivers combine via the surface energy balance to equal the sensible heat flux, which we find is often strongly correlated with the areas where the acceleration of high-temperature extremes is largest.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00626-0 |
| spellingShingle | Chris Huntingford Peter M. Cox Paul D. L. Ritchie Joseph J. Clarke Isobel M. Parry Mark S. Williamson Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes |
| title_full | Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes |
| title_fullStr | Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes |
| title_short | Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes |
| title_sort | acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00626-0 |
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