An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach
Purpose – Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agricultur...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Emerald Publishing
2023-04-01
|
| Series: | International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0003/full/pdf |
| _version_ | 1827909663874613248 |
|---|---|
| author | Christopher Belford Delin Huang Yosri Nasr Ahmed Ebrima Ceesay Lang Sanyang |
| author_facet | Christopher Belford Delin Huang Yosri Nasr Ahmed Ebrima Ceesay Lang Sanyang |
| author_sort | Christopher Belford |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose – Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise. Design/methodology/approach – This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector. Findings – The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery. Originality/value – The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:41:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7cf0c7b39d344fc794daea37a8240bac |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1756-8692 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:41:50Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Emerald Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-7cf0c7b39d344fc794daea37a8240bac2023-07-03T13:10:27ZengEmerald PublishingInternational Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management1756-86922023-04-0115332235210.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0003An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approachChristopher Belford0Delin Huang1Yosri Nasr Ahmed2Ebrima Ceesay3Lang Sanyang4Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China and School of Business and Public Admin, University of the Gambia, Serrekunda, GambiaInstitute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, ChinaFaculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, Cairo, EgyptSchool of Business and Public Administration, University of the Gambia, Serrekunda, GambiaSchool of Business and Public Administration, University of the Gambia, Serrekunda, GambiaPurpose – Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise. Design/methodology/approach – This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector. Findings – The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery. Originality/value – The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0003/full/pdfClimate changeCGEEconomic performanceAgriculture sectorThe Gambia |
| spellingShingle | Christopher Belford Delin Huang Yosri Nasr Ahmed Ebrima Ceesay Lang Sanyang An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management Climate change CGE Economic performance Agriculture sector The Gambia |
| title | An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach |
| title_full | An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach |
| title_fullStr | An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach |
| title_short | An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach |
| title_sort | economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the gambia s agriculture sector a cge approach |
| topic | Climate change CGE Economic performance Agriculture sector The Gambia |
| url | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0003/full/pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT christopherbelford aneconomicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach AT delinhuang aneconomicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach AT yosrinasrahmed aneconomicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach AT ebrimaceesay aneconomicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach AT langsanyang aneconomicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach AT christopherbelford economicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach AT delinhuang economicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach AT yosrinasrahmed economicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach AT ebrimaceesay economicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach AT langsanyang economicassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthegambiasagriculturesectoracgeapproach |