System dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty
Abstract Complex social processes introduce difficulties to validating causal parameters and identifying the correct system structure in modelling. Policy impact assessment for sustainability transitions should therefore not expend too many resources modelling any single set of assumptions about the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SpringerOpen
2022-09-01
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| Series: | European Transport Research Review |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00564-z |
| _version_ | 1828178434053898240 |
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| author | Henri Wiman Anu Tuominen Johannes Mesimäki Merja Penttinen Satu Innamaa Peter Ylén |
| author_facet | Henri Wiman Anu Tuominen Johannes Mesimäki Merja Penttinen Satu Innamaa Peter Ylén |
| author_sort | Henri Wiman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Complex social processes introduce difficulties to validating causal parameters and identifying the correct system structure in modelling. Policy impact assessment for sustainability transitions should therefore not expend too many resources modelling any single set of assumptions about the world. Furthermore, keeping models relatively simple allows more effective communication and stakeholder collaboration. This paper presents an exploratory system dynamics model of urban mode choice. We demonstrate that, despite structural and parametric uncertainty, it is possible to rank alternative policy approaches and identify high-leverage uncertainties as targets of policy action or further analysis. We also show how different narrative theories of change can have drastically different or unintuitive outcomes for the same intervention. Simulation can benefit both impact assessment and the further scrutiny and refinement of change narratives. We argue that the following methodological choices and their synergies made our modelling approach effective: exploratory modelling, focus on endogeneity, coarse resolution and avoidance of abstract variables. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:16:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7d08a9594ff74f80ac4dbd39ae07c53d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1867-0717 1866-8887 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:16:05Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | European Transport Research Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-7d08a9594ff74f80ac4dbd39ae07c53d2022-12-22T03:46:37ZengSpringerOpenEuropean Transport Research Review1867-07171866-88872022-09-0114111110.1186/s12544-022-00564-zSystem dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertaintyHenri Wiman0Anu Tuominen1Johannes Mesimäki2Merja Penttinen3Satu Innamaa4Peter Ylén5VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.Abstract Complex social processes introduce difficulties to validating causal parameters and identifying the correct system structure in modelling. Policy impact assessment for sustainability transitions should therefore not expend too many resources modelling any single set of assumptions about the world. Furthermore, keeping models relatively simple allows more effective communication and stakeholder collaboration. This paper presents an exploratory system dynamics model of urban mode choice. We demonstrate that, despite structural and parametric uncertainty, it is possible to rank alternative policy approaches and identify high-leverage uncertainties as targets of policy action or further analysis. We also show how different narrative theories of change can have drastically different or unintuitive outcomes for the same intervention. Simulation can benefit both impact assessment and the further scrutiny and refinement of change narratives. We argue that the following methodological choices and their synergies made our modelling approach effective: exploratory modelling, focus on endogeneity, coarse resolution and avoidance of abstract variables.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00564-zSystem dynamicsToy modelsExploratory modellingDecarbonisationSustainability transitionsComplexity |
| spellingShingle | Henri Wiman Anu Tuominen Johannes Mesimäki Merja Penttinen Satu Innamaa Peter Ylén System dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty European Transport Research Review System dynamics Toy models Exploratory modelling Decarbonisation Sustainability transitions Complexity |
| title | System dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty |
| title_full | System dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | System dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | System dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty |
| title_short | System dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty |
| title_sort | system dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty |
| topic | System dynamics Toy models Exploratory modelling Decarbonisation Sustainability transitions Complexity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00564-z |
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