Quantile Forecasting of Wind Power Using Variability Indices
Wind power forecasting techniques have received substantial attention recently due to the increasing penetration of wind energy in national power systems. While the initial focus has been on point forecasts, the need to quantify forecast uncertainty and communicate the risk of extreme ramp events ha...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2013-02-01
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| Series: | Energies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/2/662 |
| _version_ | 1817990551284219904 |
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| author | Patrick McSharry Georgios Anastasiades |
| author_facet | Patrick McSharry Georgios Anastasiades |
| author_sort | Patrick McSharry |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Wind power forecasting techniques have received substantial attention recently due to the increasing penetration of wind energy in national power systems. While the initial focus has been on point forecasts, the need to quantify forecast uncertainty and communicate the risk of extreme ramp events has led to an interest in producing probabilistic forecasts. Using four years of wind power data from three wind farms in Denmark, we develop quantile regression models to generate short-term probabilistic forecasts from 15 min up to six hours ahead. More specifically, we investigate the potential of using various variability indices as explanatory variables in order to include the influence of changing weather regimes. These indices are extracted from the same wind power series and optimized specifically for each quantile. The forecasting performance of this approach is compared with that of appropriate benchmark models. Our results demonstrate that variability indices can increase the overall skill of the forecasts and that the level of improvement depends on the specific quantile. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T01:00:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7d39b68252544ee18325af852bf86c96 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T01:00:35Z |
| publishDate | 2013-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-7d39b68252544ee18325af852bf86c962022-12-22T02:21:25ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732013-02-016266269510.3390/en6020662Quantile Forecasting of Wind Power Using Variability IndicesPatrick McSharryGeorgios AnastasiadesWind power forecasting techniques have received substantial attention recently due to the increasing penetration of wind energy in national power systems. While the initial focus has been on point forecasts, the need to quantify forecast uncertainty and communicate the risk of extreme ramp events has led to an interest in producing probabilistic forecasts. Using four years of wind power data from three wind farms in Denmark, we develop quantile regression models to generate short-term probabilistic forecasts from 15 min up to six hours ahead. More specifically, we investigate the potential of using various variability indices as explanatory variables in order to include the influence of changing weather regimes. These indices are extracted from the same wind power series and optimized specifically for each quantile. The forecasting performance of this approach is compared with that of appropriate benchmark models. Our results demonstrate that variability indices can increase the overall skill of the forecasts and that the level of improvement depends on the specific quantile.http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/2/662wind power forecastingwind power variabilityquantile forecastingdensity forecastingquantile regressioncontinuous ranked probability scorequantile loss functioncheck function |
| spellingShingle | Patrick McSharry Georgios Anastasiades Quantile Forecasting of Wind Power Using Variability Indices Energies wind power forecasting wind power variability quantile forecasting density forecasting quantile regression continuous ranked probability score quantile loss function check function |
| title | Quantile Forecasting of Wind Power Using Variability Indices |
| title_full | Quantile Forecasting of Wind Power Using Variability Indices |
| title_fullStr | Quantile Forecasting of Wind Power Using Variability Indices |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantile Forecasting of Wind Power Using Variability Indices |
| title_short | Quantile Forecasting of Wind Power Using Variability Indices |
| title_sort | quantile forecasting of wind power using variability indices |
| topic | wind power forecasting wind power variability quantile forecasting density forecasting quantile regression continuous ranked probability score quantile loss function check function |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/2/662 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT patrickmcsharry quantileforecastingofwindpowerusingvariabilityindices AT georgiosanastasiades quantileforecastingofwindpowerusingvariabilityindices |