Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change
Abstract Predicting climate impacts is challenging and has to date relied on indirect methods, notably modeling. Here we examine coastal ecosystem change during 13 years of unusually rapid, albeit likely temporary, sea-level rise ( > 10 mm yr−1) in the Gulf of Mexico. Such rates, which may become...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45487-6 |
| _version_ | 1797273960515108864 |
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| author | Guandong Li Torbjörn E. Törnqvist Sönke Dangendorf |
| author_facet | Guandong Li Torbjörn E. Törnqvist Sönke Dangendorf |
| author_sort | Guandong Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Predicting climate impacts is challenging and has to date relied on indirect methods, notably modeling. Here we examine coastal ecosystem change during 13 years of unusually rapid, albeit likely temporary, sea-level rise ( > 10 mm yr−1) in the Gulf of Mexico. Such rates, which may become a persistent feature in the future due to anthropogenic climate change, drove rising water levels of similar magnitude in Louisiana’s coastal wetlands. Measurements of surface-elevation change at 253 monitoring sites show that 87% of these sites are unable to keep up with rising water levels. We find no evidence for enhanced wetland elevation gain through ecogeomorphic feedbacks, where more frequent inundation would lead to enhanced biomass accumulation that could counterbalance rising water levels. We attribute this to the exceptionally rapid sea-level rise during this time period. Under the current climate trajectory (SSP2-4.5), drowning of ~75% of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands is a plausible outcome by 2070. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:51:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7d3b6951f99d40859b3429e016745ed8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:51:35Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-7d3b6951f99d40859b3429e016745ed82024-03-05T19:41:28ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-02-0115111010.1038/s41467-024-45487-6Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate changeGuandong Li0Torbjörn E. Törnqvist1Sönke Dangendorf2Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane UniversityDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane UniversityDepartment of River-Coastal Science and Engineering, Tulane UniversityAbstract Predicting climate impacts is challenging and has to date relied on indirect methods, notably modeling. Here we examine coastal ecosystem change during 13 years of unusually rapid, albeit likely temporary, sea-level rise ( > 10 mm yr−1) in the Gulf of Mexico. Such rates, which may become a persistent feature in the future due to anthropogenic climate change, drove rising water levels of similar magnitude in Louisiana’s coastal wetlands. Measurements of surface-elevation change at 253 monitoring sites show that 87% of these sites are unable to keep up with rising water levels. We find no evidence for enhanced wetland elevation gain through ecogeomorphic feedbacks, where more frequent inundation would lead to enhanced biomass accumulation that could counterbalance rising water levels. We attribute this to the exceptionally rapid sea-level rise during this time period. Under the current climate trajectory (SSP2-4.5), drowning of ~75% of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands is a plausible outcome by 2070.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45487-6 |
| spellingShingle | Guandong Li Torbjörn E. Törnqvist Sönke Dangendorf Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change Nature Communications |
| title | Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_full | Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_fullStr | Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_short | Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_sort | real world time travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45487-6 |
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