The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world
Low-stabilization scenarios consistent with the 2 °C target project large-scale deployment of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass. In case a GHG price regime integrates emissions from energy conversion and from land-use/land-use change, the strong demand for bioenergy and the pricing of terrestria...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074017 |
| _version_ | 1797748002685714432 |
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| author | David Klein Florian Humpenöder Nico Bauer Jan Philipp Dietrich Alexander Popp Benjamin Leon Bodirsky Markus Bonsch Hermann Lotze-Campen |
| author_facet | David Klein Florian Humpenöder Nico Bauer Jan Philipp Dietrich Alexander Popp Benjamin Leon Bodirsky Markus Bonsch Hermann Lotze-Campen |
| author_sort | David Klein |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Low-stabilization scenarios consistent with the 2 °C target project large-scale deployment of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass. In case a GHG price regime integrates emissions from energy conversion and from land-use/land-use change, the strong demand for bioenergy and the pricing of terrestrial emissions are likely to coincide. We explore the global potential of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass and ask the question how the supply prices of biomass depend on prices for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land-use sector. Using the spatially explicit global land-use optimization model MAgPIE, we construct bioenergy supply curves for ten world regions and a global aggregate in two scenarios, with and without a GHG tax. We find that the implementation of GHG taxes is crucial for the slope of the supply function and the GHG emissions from the land-use sector. Global supply prices start at $5 GJ ^−1 and increase almost linearly, doubling at 150 EJ (in 2055 and 2095). The GHG tax increases bioenergy prices by $5 GJ ^−1 in 2055 and by $10 GJ ^−1 in 2095, since it effectively stops deforestation and thus excludes large amounts of high-productivity land. Prices additionally increase due to costs for N _2 O emissions from fertilizer use. The GHG tax decreases global land-use change emissions by one-third. However, the carbon emissions due to bioenergy production increase by more than 50% from conversion of land that is not under emission control. Average yields required to produce 240 EJ in 2095 are roughly 600 GJ ha ^−1 yr ^−1 with and without tax. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7d552960d1724f3ab05a8fd8b6a07ec6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:41Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-7d552960d1724f3ab05a8fd8b6a07ec62023-08-09T14:43:56ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262014-01-019707401710.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074017The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained worldDavid Klein0Florian Humpenöder1Nico Bauer2Jan Philipp Dietrich3Alexander Popp4Benjamin Leon Bodirsky5Markus Bonsch6Hermann Lotze-Campen7Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyLow-stabilization scenarios consistent with the 2 °C target project large-scale deployment of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass. In case a GHG price regime integrates emissions from energy conversion and from land-use/land-use change, the strong demand for bioenergy and the pricing of terrestrial emissions are likely to coincide. We explore the global potential of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass and ask the question how the supply prices of biomass depend on prices for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land-use sector. Using the spatially explicit global land-use optimization model MAgPIE, we construct bioenergy supply curves for ten world regions and a global aggregate in two scenarios, with and without a GHG tax. We find that the implementation of GHG taxes is crucial for the slope of the supply function and the GHG emissions from the land-use sector. Global supply prices start at $5 GJ ^−1 and increase almost linearly, doubling at 150 EJ (in 2055 and 2095). The GHG tax increases bioenergy prices by $5 GJ ^−1 in 2055 and by $10 GJ ^−1 in 2095, since it effectively stops deforestation and thus excludes large amounts of high-productivity land. Prices additionally increase due to costs for N _2 O emissions from fertilizer use. The GHG tax decreases global land-use change emissions by one-third. However, the carbon emissions due to bioenergy production increase by more than 50% from conversion of land that is not under emission control. Average yields required to produce 240 EJ in 2095 are roughly 600 GJ ha ^−1 yr ^−1 with and without tax.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074017biomassclimate change mitigationland useresource potentialbiomass supply curvecarbon tax |
| spellingShingle | David Klein Florian Humpenöder Nico Bauer Jan Philipp Dietrich Alexander Popp Benjamin Leon Bodirsky Markus Bonsch Hermann Lotze-Campen The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world Environmental Research Letters biomass climate change mitigation land use resource potential biomass supply curve carbon tax |
| title | The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world |
| title_full | The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world |
| title_fullStr | The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world |
| title_full_unstemmed | The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world |
| title_short | The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world |
| title_sort | global economic long term potential of modern biomass in a climate constrained world |
| topic | biomass climate change mitigation land use resource potential biomass supply curve carbon tax |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074017 |
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