Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change
While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196 |
| _version_ | 1797747531738775552 |
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| author | Tommaso Stella Heidi Webber Jørgen E Olesen Alex C Ruane Stefan Fronzek Simone Bregaglio Sravya Mamidanna Marco Bindi Brian Collins Babacar Faye Roberto Ferrise Nándor Fodor Clara Gabaldón-Leal Mohamed Jabloun Kurt-Christian Kersebaum Jon I Lizaso Ignacio J Lorite Loic Manceau Pierre Martre Claas Nendel Alfredo Rodríguez Margarita Ruiz-Ramos Mikhail A Semenov Pierre Stratonovitch Frank Ewert |
| author_facet | Tommaso Stella Heidi Webber Jørgen E Olesen Alex C Ruane Stefan Fronzek Simone Bregaglio Sravya Mamidanna Marco Bindi Brian Collins Babacar Faye Roberto Ferrise Nándor Fodor Clara Gabaldón-Leal Mohamed Jabloun Kurt-Christian Kersebaum Jon I Lizaso Ignacio J Lorite Loic Manceau Pierre Martre Claas Nendel Alfredo Rodríguez Margarita Ruiz-Ramos Mikhail A Semenov Pierre Stratonovitch Frank Ewert |
| author_sort | Tommaso Stella |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between −0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of −0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7d67914c74c6473ebd1f02b429da4c87 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:54Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-7d67914c74c6473ebd1f02b429da4c872023-08-09T15:04:48ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-01161010403310.1088/1748-9326/ac2196Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate changeTommaso Stella0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3018-6585Heidi Webber1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8301-5424Jørgen E Olesen2Alex C Ruane3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-9217Stefan Fronzek4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2478-8050Simone Bregaglio5Sravya Mamidanna6Marco Bindi7Brian Collins8Babacar Faye9Roberto Ferrise10Nándor Fodor11Clara Gabaldón-Leal12Mohamed Jabloun13Kurt-Christian Kersebaum14Jon I Lizaso15Ignacio J Lorite16Loic Manceau17Pierre Martre18https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-6558Claas Nendel19https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7608-9097Alfredo Rodríguez20Margarita Ruiz-Ramos21Mikhail A Semenov22https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1561-7113Pierre Stratonovitch23Frank Ewert24Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) , Müncheberg, GermanyLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) , Müncheberg, GermanyThe Czech Academy of Sciences, Global Change Research Institute , Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University , Tjele, Denmark; iCLIMATE Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University , Roskilde, DenmarkNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York, NY, United States of AmericaClimate Change Programme, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) , Helsinki, FinlandCREA—Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Research Centre for Agriculture and Environment , Bologna, ItalyLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) , Müncheberg, GermanyDipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Agrarie, Alimentari, Ambientali e Forestali (DAGRI)—Università degli Studi di Firenze , Firenze, ItalyCollege of Science and Engineering, James Cook University , Townsville, AustraliaLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) , Müncheberg, Germany; Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) , ESPACE-DEV Montpellier, FranceDipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Agrarie, Alimentari, Ambientali e Forestali (DAGRI)—Università degli Studi di Firenze , Firenze, ItalyCrop Production Department, Agricultural Institute, Centre for Agricultural Research , Martonvásár, HungaryInstitute of Agricultural and Fisheries Research and Training (IFAPA), Centre ‘Alameda del Obispo’ , Córdoba, SpainPlant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University & Research , Wageningen, The NetherlandsLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) , Müncheberg, Germany; The Czech Academy of Sciences, Global Change Research Institute , Brno, Czech RepublicCEIGRAM, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid , Madrid, SpainInstitute of Agricultural and Fisheries Research and Training (IFAPA), Centre ‘Alameda del Obispo’ , Córdoba, SpainLEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier SupAgro , Montpellier, FranceLEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier SupAgro , Montpellier, FranceLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) , Müncheberg, Germany; Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam , Potsdam, GermanyCEIGRAM, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid , Madrid, Spain; Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha , Toledo, SpainCEIGRAM, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid , Madrid, SpainRothamsted Research , West Common, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, United KingdomRothamsted Research , West Common, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, United KingdomLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) , Müncheberg, Germany; Institute of Crop Science and Natural Resource Management (INRES), University of Bonn , Bonn, GermanyWhile the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between −0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of −0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196climate risk assessmentclimate change impactwheatmaizecrop modelrelative distribution |
| spellingShingle | Tommaso Stella Heidi Webber Jørgen E Olesen Alex C Ruane Stefan Fronzek Simone Bregaglio Sravya Mamidanna Marco Bindi Brian Collins Babacar Faye Roberto Ferrise Nándor Fodor Clara Gabaldón-Leal Mohamed Jabloun Kurt-Christian Kersebaum Jon I Lizaso Ignacio J Lorite Loic Manceau Pierre Martre Claas Nendel Alfredo Rodríguez Margarita Ruiz-Ramos Mikhail A Semenov Pierre Stratonovitch Frank Ewert Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change Environmental Research Letters climate risk assessment climate change impact wheat maize crop model relative distribution |
| title | Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change |
| title_full | Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change |
| title_short | Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change |
| title_sort | methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change |
| topic | climate risk assessment climate change impact wheat maize crop model relative distribution |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196 |
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