Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7
Abstract Scenarios have been an important integrating element in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the understanding of possible climate outcomes, impacts and risks, and mitigation futures. Integration supports a consistent, coherent assessm...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-01-01
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| Series: | npj Climate Action |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-023-00082-1 |
| _version_ | 1827388002779791360 |
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| author | Anna Pirani Jan S. Fuglestvedt Edward Byers Brian O’Neill Keywan Riahi June-Yi Lee Jochem Marotzke Steven K. Rose Roberto Schaeffer Claudia Tebaldi |
| author_facet | Anna Pirani Jan S. Fuglestvedt Edward Byers Brian O’Neill Keywan Riahi June-Yi Lee Jochem Marotzke Steven K. Rose Roberto Schaeffer Claudia Tebaldi |
| author_sort | Anna Pirani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Scenarios have been an important integrating element in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the understanding of possible climate outcomes, impacts and risks, and mitigation futures. Integration supports a consistent, coherent assessment, new insights and the opportunity to address policy-relevant questions that would not be possible otherwise, for example, which impacts are unavoidable, which are reversible, what is a consistent remaining carbon budget to keep temperatures below a level and what would be a consistent route of action to achieve that goal. The AR6 builds on community frameworks that are developed to support a coherent use of scenarios across the assessment, yet their use in the assessment and the related timelines presented coordination challenges. From lessons within each Working Group (WG) assessment and the cross-WG experience, we present insights into the role of scenarios in future assessments, including the enhanced integration of impacts into scenarios, near-term information and community coordination efforts. Recommendations and opportunities are discussed for how scenarios can support strengthened consistency and policy relevance in the next IPCC assessment cycle. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:11:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7dbd6adb200e4eb78bae6aa08c11796b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2731-9814 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:11:27Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate Action |
| spelling | doaj.art-7dbd6adb200e4eb78bae6aa08c11796b2024-01-07T12:54:58ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate Action2731-98142024-01-01311710.1038/s44168-023-00082-1Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7Anna Pirani0Jan S. Fuglestvedt1Edward Byers2Brian O’Neill3Keywan Riahi4June-Yi Lee5Jochem Marotzke6Steven K. Rose7Roberto Schaeffer8Claudia Tebaldi9Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (CMCC)CICERO Center for International Climate ResearchInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University and Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceMax Planck Institute for Meteorology and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability at Universität HamburgEnergy Systems and Climate Analysis Research, EPRICOPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Bloco C, Sala C-211, Cidade UniversitáriaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryAbstract Scenarios have been an important integrating element in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the understanding of possible climate outcomes, impacts and risks, and mitigation futures. Integration supports a consistent, coherent assessment, new insights and the opportunity to address policy-relevant questions that would not be possible otherwise, for example, which impacts are unavoidable, which are reversible, what is a consistent remaining carbon budget to keep temperatures below a level and what would be a consistent route of action to achieve that goal. The AR6 builds on community frameworks that are developed to support a coherent use of scenarios across the assessment, yet their use in the assessment and the related timelines presented coordination challenges. From lessons within each Working Group (WG) assessment and the cross-WG experience, we present insights into the role of scenarios in future assessments, including the enhanced integration of impacts into scenarios, near-term information and community coordination efforts. Recommendations and opportunities are discussed for how scenarios can support strengthened consistency and policy relevance in the next IPCC assessment cycle.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-023-00082-1 |
| spellingShingle | Anna Pirani Jan S. Fuglestvedt Edward Byers Brian O’Neill Keywan Riahi June-Yi Lee Jochem Marotzke Steven K. Rose Roberto Schaeffer Claudia Tebaldi Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7 npj Climate Action |
| title | Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7 |
| title_full | Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7 |
| title_fullStr | Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7 |
| title_short | Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7 |
| title_sort | scenarios in ipcc assessments lessons from ar6 and opportunities for ar7 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-023-00082-1 |
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