Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study)
This study aimed at analysis of the general-index change for the mean annual and seasonal precipitation in six stations in Latakia Governorate (Syria). The data of precipitation were collected for 40 consecutive years (1970–2010) in order to figure out the extent of the changes and variability in pr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/1/131 |
| _version_ | 1797495821639352320 |
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| author | Ahmad H. Y. Abu Hammad Ala A. M. Salameh Riad Qara Fallah |
| author_facet | Ahmad H. Y. Abu Hammad Ala A. M. Salameh Riad Qara Fallah |
| author_sort | Ahmad H. Y. Abu Hammad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aimed at analysis of the general-index change for the mean annual and seasonal precipitation in six stations in Latakia Governorate (Syria). The data of precipitation were collected for 40 consecutive years (1970–2010) in order to figure out the extent of the changes and variability in precipitation rates and the impact of this change on changes in the potential density that might cause extremely high or low precipitation rates according to Gumbel distribution of the extreme precipitation rates. Results revealed a decrease of the annual precipitation rates in all stations, the reduction in precipitation ranged from 46 to 210 mm during the whole period of the study. Spring, however, recorded the highest and statistically significant reduction, which reached 46–210 mm, while winter precipitation increased by 21–82 mm. Spring also has witnessed a decrease of about 3–9% of the total annual precipitation as compared to winter precipitation which increased by 5–8% of the total. The potential density of extremely high winter precipitation rates increased in all stations as indicated from Gumbel distribution in winter, and a greater increase took place in the probabilities of occurrence of the extremely low spring precipitation rates. This shows significant probability of occurrence of drought during spring season. By contrast, probabilities of winter precipitation rates increased more, thus winter is relatively more humid than before and spring is relatively drier than before. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:56:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7dd0697799094473b42318a034a19fac |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:56:04Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-7dd0697799094473b42318a034a19fac2023-11-23T12:57:40ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-01-0113113110.3390/atmos13010131Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study)Ahmad H. Y. Abu Hammad0Ala A. M. Salameh1Riad Qara Fallah2Department of Geography and Geoinformatics, Birzeit University, P.O. Box 14, Birzeit P627, West Bank, IsraelDepartamento de Física Aplicada, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, SpainDepartment of Geography, University of Tishreen, Latakia 2230, SyriaThis study aimed at analysis of the general-index change for the mean annual and seasonal precipitation in six stations in Latakia Governorate (Syria). The data of precipitation were collected for 40 consecutive years (1970–2010) in order to figure out the extent of the changes and variability in precipitation rates and the impact of this change on changes in the potential density that might cause extremely high or low precipitation rates according to Gumbel distribution of the extreme precipitation rates. Results revealed a decrease of the annual precipitation rates in all stations, the reduction in precipitation ranged from 46 to 210 mm during the whole period of the study. Spring, however, recorded the highest and statistically significant reduction, which reached 46–210 mm, while winter precipitation increased by 21–82 mm. Spring also has witnessed a decrease of about 3–9% of the total annual precipitation as compared to winter precipitation which increased by 5–8% of the total. The potential density of extremely high winter precipitation rates increased in all stations as indicated from Gumbel distribution in winter, and a greater increase took place in the probabilities of occurrence of the extremely low spring precipitation rates. This shows significant probability of occurrence of drought during spring season. By contrast, probabilities of winter precipitation rates increased more, thus winter is relatively more humid than before and spring is relatively drier than before.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/1/131climate changeGumbel distributionextreme precipitationLatakiaprobability of occurrenceeastern Mediterranean |
| spellingShingle | Ahmad H. Y. Abu Hammad Ala A. M. Salameh Riad Qara Fallah Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study) Atmosphere climate change Gumbel distribution extreme precipitation Latakia probability of occurrence eastern Mediterranean |
| title | Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study) |
| title_full | Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study) |
| title_fullStr | Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study) |
| title_short | Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study) |
| title_sort | precipitation variability and probabilities of extreme events in the eastern mediterranean region latakia governorate syria as a case study |
| topic | climate change Gumbel distribution extreme precipitation Latakia probability of occurrence eastern Mediterranean |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/1/131 |
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