Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Characteristics in 2022 and Projection of Extreme Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenarios
In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of the heavy rainfall events that occurred in Seoul in 2022 and compared them with the projections of the representative concentration pathway (RCP). The analysis results indicated that climate change is ongoing. In this era of climate crisis, based on...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/22/3986 |
| _version_ | 1797457478341885952 |
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| author | Jang Hyun Sung Dong Ho Kang Young-Ho Seo Byung Sik Kim |
| author_facet | Jang Hyun Sung Dong Ho Kang Young-Ho Seo Byung Sik Kim |
| author_sort | Jang Hyun Sung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of the heavy rainfall events that occurred in Seoul in 2022 and compared them with the projections of the representative concentration pathway (RCP). The analysis results indicated that climate change is ongoing. In this era of climate crisis, based on the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) data, we projected the 20-year frequency rainfall for South Korea at intervals of 1 day/24 h. Our results indicate that the maximum rainfall (with a 24 h duration) will increase by ~18% in the second half of the 21st century, compared to the current maximum rainfall. Finally, we projected the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve for the infrastructure design of Seoul. According to the projected IDF curve, across all durations, the rainfall intensity was the strongest in the early 21st century, indicating that at present, we are in the midst of a climate crisis. Thus, it is important to develop and implement effective urban and river flood management measures to mitigate the current effects of climate change. Notably, our study can serve as a reference for future studies on climate change and help policymakers and decision-makers develop relevant policies and mitigation strategies related to the effects of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T16:22:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7de66a5024f841c484bd99859cee0f51 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T16:22:44Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-7de66a5024f841c484bd99859cee0f512023-11-24T15:11:32ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412023-11-011522398610.3390/w15223986Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Characteristics in 2022 and Projection of Extreme Rainfall Based on Climate Change ScenariosJang Hyun Sung0Dong Ho Kang1Young-Ho Seo2Byung Sik Kim3Department of Urban and Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University, Samcheok-si 25913, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Urban and Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University, Samcheok-si 25913, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Urban and Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University, Samcheok-si 25913, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Artificial Intelligence & Software, Kangwon National University, Samcheok-si 25913, Republic of KoreaIn this study, we analyzed the characteristics of the heavy rainfall events that occurred in Seoul in 2022 and compared them with the projections of the representative concentration pathway (RCP). The analysis results indicated that climate change is ongoing. In this era of climate crisis, based on the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) data, we projected the 20-year frequency rainfall for South Korea at intervals of 1 day/24 h. Our results indicate that the maximum rainfall (with a 24 h duration) will increase by ~18% in the second half of the 21st century, compared to the current maximum rainfall. Finally, we projected the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve for the infrastructure design of Seoul. According to the projected IDF curve, across all durations, the rainfall intensity was the strongest in the early 21st century, indicating that at present, we are in the midst of a climate crisis. Thus, it is important to develop and implement effective urban and river flood management measures to mitigate the current effects of climate change. Notably, our study can serve as a reference for future studies on climate change and help policymakers and decision-makers develop relevant policies and mitigation strategies related to the effects of climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/22/3986representative concentration pathway (RCP)climate changeshared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curveSeoulurban flood |
| spellingShingle | Jang Hyun Sung Dong Ho Kang Young-Ho Seo Byung Sik Kim Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Characteristics in 2022 and Projection of Extreme Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenarios Water representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate change shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve Seoul urban flood |
| title | Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Characteristics in 2022 and Projection of Extreme Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full | Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Characteristics in 2022 and Projection of Extreme Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Characteristics in 2022 and Projection of Extreme Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Characteristics in 2022 and Projection of Extreme Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_short | Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Characteristics in 2022 and Projection of Extreme Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_sort | analysis of extreme rainfall characteristics in 2022 and projection of extreme rainfall based on climate change scenarios |
| topic | representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate change shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve Seoul urban flood |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/22/3986 |
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