Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study
Objective To assess the return on investment (ROI) of the New York Tobacco Control Programme (NY TCP).Setting New York and other states of the USA.Interventions NY TCP.Outcomes Smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable healthcare expenditures (SAEs), smoking-attributable mortality, years of life lost...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMJ Publishing Group
2024-04-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/14/4/e080525.full |
| _version_ | 1797226833839652864 |
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| author | Jennifer Gaber James Nonnemaker Anna J MacMonegle Nathan Mann OlaOluwa Fajobi |
| author_facet | Jennifer Gaber James Nonnemaker Anna J MacMonegle Nathan Mann OlaOluwa Fajobi |
| author_sort | Jennifer Gaber |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective To assess the return on investment (ROI) of the New York Tobacco Control Programme (NY TCP).Setting New York and other states of the USA.Interventions NY TCP.Outcomes Smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable healthcare expenditures (SAEs), smoking-attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLL), the dollar value of YLL and the ROI for healthcare expenditures and mortality.Design and methods We used a synthetic control method to estimate the effectiveness of NY TCP funding on smoking prevalence. The synthetic control method created a comparison group that best matched the adult smoking prevalence trend in New York state in the period prior to implementation of the NY TCP and compared smoking prevalence in the state to smoking prevalence in the synthetic control in the period after treatment (2001–2019). The synthetic control group represents what the trend in smoking prevalence in New York would have been had there been no tobacco control expenditures. The ROI was calculated as net savings for each outcome divided by net programme expenditures.Results Cumulative savings in SAE in New York from 2001 to 2019 amounted to US$13.2 billion. An estimated 41 771 smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) were averted in New York from 2001 to 2019, and an estimated 672 141 YLL averted as a result of NY TCP funding in the same period. From 2001 to 2019, the ROI for SAE in New York was approximately 14, the economic value ROI of the YLL due to SAD was nearly 145 and the combined ROI was almost 160.Conclusions In this study, we found relatively large ROIs for the NY TCP, which suggests that the programme—which lowers SAE and saves lives—is an efficient use of public funds. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T14:31:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7dff754c0ec849bda56fd6a0e33c380a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T14:31:12Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj.art-7dff754c0ec849bda56fd6a0e33c380a2024-04-03T03:00:08ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552024-04-0114410.1136/bmjopen-2023-080525Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control studyJennifer Gaber0James Nonnemaker1Anna J MacMonegle2Nathan Mann3OlaOluwa Fajobi43 Center for Health Analytics, Media, and Policy, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USACenter for Health Analytics, Media, and Policy, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USACenter for Health Analytics, Media, and Policy, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USACenter for Health Analytics, Media, and Policy, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USANew York State Department of Health, Albany, New York, USAObjective To assess the return on investment (ROI) of the New York Tobacco Control Programme (NY TCP).Setting New York and other states of the USA.Interventions NY TCP.Outcomes Smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable healthcare expenditures (SAEs), smoking-attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLL), the dollar value of YLL and the ROI for healthcare expenditures and mortality.Design and methods We used a synthetic control method to estimate the effectiveness of NY TCP funding on smoking prevalence. The synthetic control method created a comparison group that best matched the adult smoking prevalence trend in New York state in the period prior to implementation of the NY TCP and compared smoking prevalence in the state to smoking prevalence in the synthetic control in the period after treatment (2001–2019). The synthetic control group represents what the trend in smoking prevalence in New York would have been had there been no tobacco control expenditures. The ROI was calculated as net savings for each outcome divided by net programme expenditures.Results Cumulative savings in SAE in New York from 2001 to 2019 amounted to US$13.2 billion. An estimated 41 771 smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) were averted in New York from 2001 to 2019, and an estimated 672 141 YLL averted as a result of NY TCP funding in the same period. From 2001 to 2019, the ROI for SAE in New York was approximately 14, the economic value ROI of the YLL due to SAD was nearly 145 and the combined ROI was almost 160.Conclusions In this study, we found relatively large ROIs for the NY TCP, which suggests that the programme—which lowers SAE and saves lives—is an efficient use of public funds.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/14/4/e080525.full |
| spellingShingle | Jennifer Gaber James Nonnemaker Anna J MacMonegle Nathan Mann OlaOluwa Fajobi Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study BMJ Open |
| title | Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study |
| title_full | Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study |
| title_short | Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study |
| title_sort | estimating the return on investment of the new york tobacco control programme a synthetic control study |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/14/4/e080525.full |
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