Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity?
Falling oil prices are leading to a reduction in domestic demand and lowering of the ruble exchange rate, thus enhancing the price competitiveness of Russian producers and stimulating the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets unaffected by the recession). Indeed, all of this crea...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Voprosy Ekonomiki
2015-09-01
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| Series: | Russian Journal of Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405473915000379 |
| _version_ | 1818082733404979200 |
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| author | Valeriy Mironov |
| author_facet | Valeriy Mironov |
| author_sort | Valeriy Mironov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Falling oil prices are leading to a reduction in domestic demand and lowering of the ruble exchange rate, thus enhancing the price competitiveness of Russian producers and stimulating the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets unaffected by the recession). Indeed, all of this create the possibility of offsetting the decline in domestic demand to a varying degree through increased net exports. However, the present study shows that, taking into account all of the structural problems of the Russian economy, the devaluation of the ruble may lead to a more severe recession than anticipated by most experts in their estimates, judging by average consensus forecasts (as of the end of September 2015). |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T19:26:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7e51b55c06314fdab0cb5c05f89193d6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-4739 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T19:26:47Z |
| publishDate | 2015-09-01 |
| publisher | Voprosy Ekonomiki |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Russian Journal of Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-7e51b55c06314fdab0cb5c05f89193d62022-12-22T01:36:20ZengVoprosy EkonomikiRussian Journal of Economics2405-47392015-09-011321723910.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.005Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity?Valeriy MironovFalling oil prices are leading to a reduction in domestic demand and lowering of the ruble exchange rate, thus enhancing the price competitiveness of Russian producers and stimulating the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets unaffected by the recession). Indeed, all of this create the possibility of offsetting the decline in domestic demand to a varying degree through increased net exports. However, the present study shows that, taking into account all of the structural problems of the Russian economy, the devaluation of the ruble may lead to a more severe recession than anticipated by most experts in their estimates, judging by average consensus forecasts (as of the end of September 2015).http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405473915000379devaluationreal exchange rateMarshall-Lerner conditionresource curseeconomic policyRussia. |
| spellingShingle | Valeriy Mironov Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity? Russian Journal of Economics devaluation real exchange rate Marshall-Lerner condition resource curse economic policy Russia. |
| title | Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity? |
| title_full | Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity? |
| title_fullStr | Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity? |
| title_short | Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity? |
| title_sort | russian devaluation in 2014 2015 falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity |
| topic | devaluation real exchange rate Marshall-Lerner condition resource curse economic policy Russia. |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405473915000379 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT valeriymironov russiandevaluationin20142015fallingintotheabyssorawindowofopportunity |