Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?
Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how in...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5968 |
| _version_ | 1827870925058473984 |
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| author | Kara Allen Juan Manuel Dupuy Maria G Gei Catherine Hulshof David Medvigy Camila Pizano Beatriz Salgado-Negret Christina M Smith Annette Trierweiler Skip J Van Bloem Bonnie G Waring Xiangtao Xu Jennifer S Powers |
| author_facet | Kara Allen Juan Manuel Dupuy Maria G Gei Catherine Hulshof David Medvigy Camila Pizano Beatriz Salgado-Negret Christina M Smith Annette Trierweiler Skip J Van Bloem Bonnie G Waring Xiangtao Xu Jennifer S Powers |
| author_sort | Kara Allen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are already limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7e5f599e7f594059901e7adc28f13c47 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:41Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-7e5f599e7f594059901e7adc28f13c472023-08-09T14:30:59ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-0112202300110.1088/1748-9326/aa5968Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?Kara Allen0Juan Manuel Dupuy1Maria G Gei2Catherine Hulshof3David Medvigy4Camila Pizano5Beatriz Salgado-Negret6Christina M Smith7Annette Trierweiler8Skip J Van Bloem9Bonnie G Waring10Xiangtao Xu11Jennifer S Powers12Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States of AmericaCentro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán , Unidad de Recursos Naturales, Calle 43 # 130 entre 32 y 34, Col. Chuburná de Hidalgo, CP 97205, Mérida, Yucatán, MexicoDepartment of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States of AmericaDepartamento de Biología, Universidad de Puerto Rico Mayagüez , PO Box 9000, Mayagüez, PR, 00681-9000, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geosciences, 418B Guyot Hall, Princeton University. Princeton , NJ 08544, United States of America; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame , Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States of AmericaDepartamento de Biología, Universidad ICESI , Cali, ColombiaAlexander von Humboldt Institute , Bogotá, ColombiaDepartment of Plant Biology, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geosciences, 418B Guyot Hall, Princeton University. Princeton , NJ 08544, United States of America; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 106A Guyot Hall, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08544-2016, United States of AmericaBaruch Institute of Coastal Ecology and Forest Science , Clemson University, PO Box 596, Georgetown, SC, 29442, United States of AmericaDepartment of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geosciences, 418B Guyot Hall, Princeton University. Princeton , NJ 08544, United States of AmericaDepartment of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States of America; Department of Plant Biology, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States of America; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are already limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5968climate changeprecipitation variabilityfunctional traitsdroughttree phenologybelowground processes |
| spellingShingle | Kara Allen Juan Manuel Dupuy Maria G Gei Catherine Hulshof David Medvigy Camila Pizano Beatriz Salgado-Negret Christina M Smith Annette Trierweiler Skip J Van Bloem Bonnie G Waring Xiangtao Xu Jennifer S Powers Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes? Environmental Research Letters climate change precipitation variability functional traits drought tree phenology belowground processes |
| title | Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes? |
| title_full | Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes? |
| title_fullStr | Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes? |
| title_short | Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes? |
| title_sort | will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes |
| topic | climate change precipitation variability functional traits drought tree phenology belowground processes |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5968 |
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