Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios
To better understand the climate response under stabilized, overshoot, and transient global warming, four types of ensemble experiments on 1.5 °C/2 °C global warming scenarios (i.e., stabilized 1.5 °C, 1.5 °C overshoot, stabilized 2 °C, and transient 2 °C) are elaborately designed using the Nanjing...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Advances in Climate Change Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927820300708 |
| _version_ | 1831763076187160576 |
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| author | Jian Cao Hai-Kun Zhao |
| author_facet | Jian Cao Hai-Kun Zhao |
| author_sort | Jian Cao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To better understand the climate response under stabilized, overshoot, and transient global warming, four types of ensemble experiments on 1.5 °C/2 °C global warming scenarios (i.e., stabilized 1.5 °C, 1.5 °C overshoot, stabilized 2 °C, and transient 2 °C) are elaborately designed using the Nanjing University Information Science and Technology Earth System Model (NESM). Compared with the modern climate (1985–2014), the projected surface air temperature (SAT) change is characterized by a robust ‘Northern Hemisphere (NH)-warmer than-Southern Hemisphere (SH)’ and ‘land-warmer than-ocean’ patterns. The projected precipitation change exhibits ‘NH-wetter than-SH’ pattern in the tropics. Although the response of SAT and precipitation climatology show similar pattern between stabilized and overshoot scenarios, some significant differences are still found. The projected change in the Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation (NHLMP) is 30% larger in the transient 2 °C experiment compared with that in the stabilized 2 °C experiment. The more vigorous NHLMP in the transient global warming scenario is mainly due to the enhanced land–sea thermal contrast and interhemispheric temperature difference. The enlarged land–sea thermal contrast increases the surface pressure gradient between the NH continents and its adjacent oceans, thus enhancing the NH monsoon circulation and moisture convergence. The enhanced interhemispheric temperature difference shifts the Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone northward, leading to the enhanced moisture convergence and the shifts of tropical rain band over the NH monsoon region. This result highlights that climate responses may depend on different warming trajectories and, which could facilitate the strategic planning of governments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T05:19:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7ea3ddc5c8e9485dad523864cbaf0639 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1674-9278 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T05:19:47Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Climate Change Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-7ea3ddc5c8e9485dad523864cbaf06392022-12-21T18:37:46ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Advances in Climate Change Research1674-92782020-09-01113161171Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenariosJian Cao0Hai-Kun Zhao1Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Corresponding author. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, ChinaTo better understand the climate response under stabilized, overshoot, and transient global warming, four types of ensemble experiments on 1.5 °C/2 °C global warming scenarios (i.e., stabilized 1.5 °C, 1.5 °C overshoot, stabilized 2 °C, and transient 2 °C) are elaborately designed using the Nanjing University Information Science and Technology Earth System Model (NESM). Compared with the modern climate (1985–2014), the projected surface air temperature (SAT) change is characterized by a robust ‘Northern Hemisphere (NH)-warmer than-Southern Hemisphere (SH)’ and ‘land-warmer than-ocean’ patterns. The projected precipitation change exhibits ‘NH-wetter than-SH’ pattern in the tropics. Although the response of SAT and precipitation climatology show similar pattern between stabilized and overshoot scenarios, some significant differences are still found. The projected change in the Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation (NHLMP) is 30% larger in the transient 2 °C experiment compared with that in the stabilized 2 °C experiment. The more vigorous NHLMP in the transient global warming scenario is mainly due to the enhanced land–sea thermal contrast and interhemispheric temperature difference. The enlarged land–sea thermal contrast increases the surface pressure gradient between the NH continents and its adjacent oceans, thus enhancing the NH monsoon circulation and moisture convergence. The enhanced interhemispheric temperature difference shifts the Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone northward, leading to the enhanced moisture convergence and the shifts of tropical rain band over the NH monsoon region. This result highlights that climate responses may depend on different warming trajectories and, which could facilitate the strategic planning of governments.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S16749278203007081.5 °C/2 °C global warmingMonsoon precipitationNESM modelTransient global warmingStabilized global warming |
| spellingShingle | Jian Cao Hai-Kun Zhao Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios Advances in Climate Change Research 1.5 °C/2 °C global warming Monsoon precipitation NESM model Transient global warming Stabilized global warming |
| title | Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios |
| title_full | Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios |
| title_short | Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios |
| title_sort | distinct response of northern hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios |
| topic | 1.5 °C/2 °C global warming Monsoon precipitation NESM model Transient global warming Stabilized global warming |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927820300708 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiancao distinctresponseofnorthernhemispherelandmonsoonprecipitationtotransientandstablizedwarmingscenarios AT haikunzhao distinctresponseofnorthernhemispherelandmonsoonprecipitationtotransientandstablizedwarmingscenarios |