Failing to ignore the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for error
Expertise is a reliable cue for accuracy – experts are often correct in their judgments and opinions. However, the opposite is not necessarily the case – ignorant judges are not guaranteed to err. Specifically, in a question with a dichotomous response option, an ignorant responder has a 50% chance...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/21/211223/jdm211223.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827882100610564096 |
|---|---|
| author | André Vaz André Mata |
| author_facet | André Vaz André Mata |
| author_sort | André Vaz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Expertise is a reliable
cue for accuracy – experts are often correct in their judgments and opinions.
However, the opposite is not necessarily the case – ignorant judges are not
guaranteed to err. Specifically, in a question with a dichotomous response
option, an ignorant responder has a 50% chance of being correct. In five
studies, we show that people fail to understand this, and that they
overgeneralize a sound heuristic (expertise signals accuracy) to cases where it
does not apply (lack of expertise does not imply error). These studies show
that people 1) tend to think that the responses of an ignorant person to
dichotomous-response questions are more likely to be incorrect than correct,
and 2) they tend to respond the opposite of what the ignorant person responded.
This research also shows that this bias is at least partially intuitive in
nature, as it manifests more clearly in quick gut responses than in slow
careful responses. Still, it is not completely corrected upon careful
deliberation. Implications are discussed for rationality and epistemic
vigilance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T18:50:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7ebd26ba200d43a39f6fafb42a4c1360 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T18:50:36Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-7ebd26ba200d43a39f6fafb42a4c13602023-08-02T07:14:45ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752022-09-01175937961Failing to ignore the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for errorAndré VazAndré MataExpertise is a reliable cue for accuracy – experts are often correct in their judgments and opinions. However, the opposite is not necessarily the case – ignorant judges are not guaranteed to err. Specifically, in a question with a dichotomous response option, an ignorant responder has a 50% chance of being correct. In five studies, we show that people fail to understand this, and that they overgeneralize a sound heuristic (expertise signals accuracy) to cases where it does not apply (lack of expertise does not imply error). These studies show that people 1) tend to think that the responses of an ignorant person to dichotomous-response questions are more likely to be incorrect than correct, and 2) they tend to respond the opposite of what the ignorant person responded. This research also shows that this bias is at least partially intuitive in nature, as it manifests more clearly in quick gut responses than in slow careful responses. Still, it is not completely corrected upon careful deliberation. Implications are discussed for rationality and epistemic vigilance.http://journal.sjdm.org/21/211223/jdm211223.pdfignorance error heuristics expertise advice taking social influencenakeywords |
| spellingShingle | André Vaz André Mata Failing to ignore the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for error Judgment and Decision Making ignorance error heuristics expertise advice taking social influencenakeywords |
| title | Failing to ignore
the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for error |
| title_full | Failing to ignore
the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for error |
| title_fullStr | Failing to ignore
the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for error |
| title_full_unstemmed | Failing to ignore
the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for error |
| title_short | Failing to ignore
the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for error |
| title_sort | failing to ignore the ignorant mistaking ignorance for error |
| topic | ignorance error heuristics expertise advice taking social influencenakeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/21/211223/jdm211223.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT andrevaz failingtoignoretheignorantmistakingignoranceforerror AT andremata failingtoignoretheignorantmistakingignoranceforerror |