New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccination
Background: The trajectories of all-cause deaths linked to omicron infections are rarely studied, especially in relation to the efficacy of booster shots. For assessing three epidemiological death trajectories, including dying from COVID-19, dying with COVID-19, and non-COVID-19 death, we offer a ne...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-05-01
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| Series: | Journal of Infection and Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034124000571 |
| _version_ | 1827284850051121152 |
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| author | Yen-Po Yeh Ting-Yu Lin Yu-Ching Yao Chen-Yang Hsu Amy Ming-Fang Yen Sam Li-Sheng Chen Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen |
| author_facet | Yen-Po Yeh Ting-Yu Lin Yu-Ching Yao Chen-Yang Hsu Amy Ming-Fang Yen Sam Li-Sheng Chen Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen |
| author_sort | Yen-Po Yeh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: The trajectories of all-cause deaths linked to omicron infections are rarely studied, especially in relation to the efficacy of booster shots. For assessing three epidemiological death trajectories, including dying from COVID-19, dying with COVID-19, and non-COVID-19 death, we offer a new COVID-19-and-death competing risk model that deals with the primary pathway (e.g., dying from COVID-19) competing with two other pathways. Methods: We applied this model to track three trajectories: deaths directly from COVID-19, deaths with COVID-19 as a contributing factor, and indirect non-COVID-19 deaths. The study used data from a Taiwanese cohort, covering periods of Omicron subvariants BA.2, BA.5, and BA.2.75. It focused on the effectiveness of monovalent and bivalent booster vaccines against these death trajectories. Results: The highest mortality was observed during the BA.2 phase, which decreased in the BA.5 period and increased again in the BA.2.75 period. Analyzing each trajectory, we noted similar trends in deaths directly from and with COVID-19, while non-COVID-19 deaths remained stable across subvariants. Booster vaccines reduced all-cause mortality by 58% (52%−62%) for BA.2, 70% (65%−75%) for BA.5%, and 75% (70%−80%) for BA.2.75, compared to incomplete vaccination. The reduction in deaths directly from COVID-19 was 66% (61%−72%) for BA.2, 78% (72%−84%) for BA.5%, and 85% (76%−93%) for BA.2.75. For deaths with COVID-19, the figures were 46% (36%−55%), 76% (68%−84%), and 90% (86%−95%). Additionally, the booster shots decreased non-COVID-19 deaths by 64% (63%−66%) for BA.2, 38% (36%−40%) for BA.5, and 19% (17%−21%) for BA.2.75. Conclusion: Our competing risk analysis is effective for monitoring all-cause death trajectories amidst various Omicron infections. It provides insights into the impact of booster vaccines, especially bivalent ones, and highlights the consequences of inadequate healthcare for vulnerable groups. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:04:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7ec35dec2a4541f2b9105ea1b07f9183 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1876-0341 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:04:16Z |
| publishDate | 2024-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Infection and Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-7ec35dec2a4541f2b9105ea1b07f91832024-04-13T04:21:07ZengElsevierJournal of Infection and Public Health1876-03412024-05-01175735740New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccinationYen-Po Yeh0Ting-Yu Lin1Yu-Ching Yao2Chen-Yang Hsu3Amy Ming-Fang Yen4Sam Li-Sheng Chen5Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen6Changhua County Public Health Bureau, Changhua, TaiwanInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, TaiwanChanghua County Public Health Bureau, Changhua, TaiwanInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Daichung Hospital, Miaoli, TaiwanSchool of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, TaiwanSchool of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, TaiwanInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Correspondence to: Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Room 533, No. 17, Hsuchow Road, Taipei 100, Taiwan.Background: The trajectories of all-cause deaths linked to omicron infections are rarely studied, especially in relation to the efficacy of booster shots. For assessing three epidemiological death trajectories, including dying from COVID-19, dying with COVID-19, and non-COVID-19 death, we offer a new COVID-19-and-death competing risk model that deals with the primary pathway (e.g., dying from COVID-19) competing with two other pathways. Methods: We applied this model to track three trajectories: deaths directly from COVID-19, deaths with COVID-19 as a contributing factor, and indirect non-COVID-19 deaths. The study used data from a Taiwanese cohort, covering periods of Omicron subvariants BA.2, BA.5, and BA.2.75. It focused on the effectiveness of monovalent and bivalent booster vaccines against these death trajectories. Results: The highest mortality was observed during the BA.2 phase, which decreased in the BA.5 period and increased again in the BA.2.75 period. Analyzing each trajectory, we noted similar trends in deaths directly from and with COVID-19, while non-COVID-19 deaths remained stable across subvariants. Booster vaccines reduced all-cause mortality by 58% (52%−62%) for BA.2, 70% (65%−75%) for BA.5%, and 75% (70%−80%) for BA.2.75, compared to incomplete vaccination. The reduction in deaths directly from COVID-19 was 66% (61%−72%) for BA.2, 78% (72%−84%) for BA.5%, and 85% (76%−93%) for BA.2.75. For deaths with COVID-19, the figures were 46% (36%−55%), 76% (68%−84%), and 90% (86%−95%). Additionally, the booster shots decreased non-COVID-19 deaths by 64% (63%−66%) for BA.2, 38% (36%−40%) for BA.5, and 19% (17%−21%) for BA.2.75. Conclusion: Our competing risk analysis is effective for monitoring all-cause death trajectories amidst various Omicron infections. It provides insights into the impact of booster vaccines, especially bivalent ones, and highlights the consequences of inadequate healthcare for vulnerable groups.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034124000571OmicronVaccineTrajectoriesAll-cause death |
| spellingShingle | Yen-Po Yeh Ting-Yu Lin Yu-Ching Yao Chen-Yang Hsu Amy Ming-Fang Yen Sam Li-Sheng Chen Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccination Journal of Infection and Public Health Omicron Vaccine Trajectories All-cause death |
| title | New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccination |
| title_full | New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccination |
| title_fullStr | New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccination |
| title_full_unstemmed | New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccination |
| title_short | New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccination |
| title_sort | new insights into three trajectories of omicron related all cause death reduced by covid 19 booster vaccination |
| topic | Omicron Vaccine Trajectories All-cause death |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034124000571 |
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