An integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in Guangzhou, China
High-intensity human activities have caused dramatic changes in land-use structure in Guangzhou. It is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and the induced ecological risks. In this research, a framework was developed for landscape ecological risk (LER) prediction based on...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2022-09-01
|
| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007427 |
| _version_ | 1828153615033827328 |
|---|---|
| author | Hongjiang Guo Yanpeng Cai Bowen Li Yijia Tang Zixuan Qi Yaping Huang Zhifeng Yang |
| author_facet | Hongjiang Guo Yanpeng Cai Bowen Li Yijia Tang Zixuan Qi Yaping Huang Zhifeng Yang |
| author_sort | Hongjiang Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | High-intensity human activities have caused dramatic changes in land-use structure in Guangzhou. It is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and the induced ecological risks. In this research, a framework was developed for landscape ecological risk (LER) prediction based on a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model through incorporating analysis of land expansion strategies, CA model based on multi-type random patch seeds and LER assessment model. The results showed: 1) the urbanization process of Guangzhou was obvious in the past 20 years. Proximity to railways, highways, and secondary roads have the primary impact on the expansion of cultivated land, grassland and construction land, respectively, 2) Guangzhou's future urban expansion is inevitable based on the PLUS model prediction, 3) during 2000–2020, the overall LER in Guangzhou was at a relatively low level. The higher ecological risk area was mainly distributed in the southern sea area, and 4) from 2020 to 2040, Guangzhou's higher ecological risk areas are on an overall decreasing trend under three scenarios. This research can provide a reference for the planning of regional ecological environmental protection and sustainable development of land resources, as well as LER prediction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:27:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7ec91e83dd9b495c87c6b457227f9683 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:27:29Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-7ec91e83dd9b495c87c6b457227f96832022-12-22T03:59:36ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2022-09-01142109270An integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in Guangzhou, ChinaHongjiang Guo0Yanpeng Cai1Bowen Li2Yijia Tang3Zixuan Qi4Yaping Huang5Zhifeng Yang6Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China; Corresponding author at: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, ChinaResearch Institute of Tropical Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou 510520, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, ChinaHigh-intensity human activities have caused dramatic changes in land-use structure in Guangzhou. It is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and the induced ecological risks. In this research, a framework was developed for landscape ecological risk (LER) prediction based on a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model through incorporating analysis of land expansion strategies, CA model based on multi-type random patch seeds and LER assessment model. The results showed: 1) the urbanization process of Guangzhou was obvious in the past 20 years. Proximity to railways, highways, and secondary roads have the primary impact on the expansion of cultivated land, grassland and construction land, respectively, 2) Guangzhou's future urban expansion is inevitable based on the PLUS model prediction, 3) during 2000–2020, the overall LER in Guangzhou was at a relatively low level. The higher ecological risk area was mainly distributed in the southern sea area, and 4) from 2020 to 2040, Guangzhou's higher ecological risk areas are on an overall decreasing trend under three scenarios. This research can provide a reference for the planning of regional ecological environmental protection and sustainable development of land resources, as well as LER prediction.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007427PLUS-LER coupling modelLand expansionMulti-scenario simulationLandscape ecological risk assessmentGuangzhou |
| spellingShingle | Hongjiang Guo Yanpeng Cai Bowen Li Yijia Tang Zixuan Qi Yaping Huang Zhifeng Yang An integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in Guangzhou, China Ecological Indicators PLUS-LER coupling model Land expansion Multi-scenario simulation Landscape ecological risk assessment Guangzhou |
| title | An integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in Guangzhou, China |
| title_full | An integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in Guangzhou, China |
| title_fullStr | An integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in Guangzhou, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | An integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in Guangzhou, China |
| title_short | An integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in Guangzhou, China |
| title_sort | integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in guangzhou china |
| topic | PLUS-LER coupling model Land expansion Multi-scenario simulation Landscape ecological risk assessment Guangzhou |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007427 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hongjiangguo anintegratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT yanpengcai anintegratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT bowenli anintegratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT yijiatang anintegratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT zixuanqi anintegratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT yapinghuang anintegratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT zhifengyang anintegratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT hongjiangguo integratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT yanpengcai integratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT bowenli integratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT yijiatang integratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT zixuanqi integratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT yapinghuang integratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina AT zhifengyang integratedmodelingapproachforecologicalrisksassessmentundermultiplescenariosinguangzhouchina |