The effect of an unconventional fare decrease on the demand for bus journeys: A regression discontinuity approach
We analyse the effect of a change in the fare structure for bus journeys in London on different demand measures using a regression discontinuity design. We utilise data obtained from Transport for London following the implementation of a new bus fare policy in September 2016, in which a follow-up jo...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Public Transportation |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1077291X23000140 |
| _version_ | 1797755825863786496 |
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| author | Kingsley Offiaeli Firat Yaman |
| author_facet | Kingsley Offiaeli Firat Yaman |
| author_sort | Kingsley Offiaeli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We analyse the effect of a change in the fare structure for bus journeys in London on different demand measures using a regression discontinuity design. We utilise data obtained from Transport for London following the implementation of a new bus fare policy in September 2016, in which a follow-up journey made within the hour of an initial journey became free. Drawing on millions of individual paid and unpaid journeys between June and December 2016 – thus covering the period just before and after the introduction of the new fare – we estimate the effect of this price policy on the number of paid bus journeys, follow-up journeys and bus passenger numbers. We find that the policy significantly increased the number of bus trips by 5% and follow-up journeys by 8%. Passenger numbers increased by 4%. We also find that the increase in demand was not only driven by new customers, but also by more intensive demand by existing customers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T17:51:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7edb1684916c4971b7cec3f0fbdee055 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2375-0901 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T17:51:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Public Transportation |
| spelling | doaj.art-7edb1684916c4971b7cec3f0fbdee0552023-08-03T04:22:55ZengElsevierJournal of Public Transportation2375-09012023-01-0125100053The effect of an unconventional fare decrease on the demand for bus journeys: A regression discontinuity approachKingsley Offiaeli0Firat Yaman1City, University of London, and Transport for London, Department of Economics, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, United KingdomOffice of Communications, and City, University of London, Department of Economics, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, United Kingdom; Corresponding author.We analyse the effect of a change in the fare structure for bus journeys in London on different demand measures using a regression discontinuity design. We utilise data obtained from Transport for London following the implementation of a new bus fare policy in September 2016, in which a follow-up journey made within the hour of an initial journey became free. Drawing on millions of individual paid and unpaid journeys between June and December 2016 – thus covering the period just before and after the introduction of the new fare – we estimate the effect of this price policy on the number of paid bus journeys, follow-up journeys and bus passenger numbers. We find that the policy significantly increased the number of bus trips by 5% and follow-up journeys by 8%. Passenger numbers increased by 4%. We also find that the increase in demand was not only driven by new customers, but also by more intensive demand by existing customers.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1077291X23000140Public transportTransport demandTravel choiceRegression discontinuity design |
| spellingShingle | Kingsley Offiaeli Firat Yaman The effect of an unconventional fare decrease on the demand for bus journeys: A regression discontinuity approach Journal of Public Transportation Public transport Transport demand Travel choice Regression discontinuity design |
| title | The effect of an unconventional fare decrease on the demand for bus journeys: A regression discontinuity approach |
| title_full | The effect of an unconventional fare decrease on the demand for bus journeys: A regression discontinuity approach |
| title_fullStr | The effect of an unconventional fare decrease on the demand for bus journeys: A regression discontinuity approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | The effect of an unconventional fare decrease on the demand for bus journeys: A regression discontinuity approach |
| title_short | The effect of an unconventional fare decrease on the demand for bus journeys: A regression discontinuity approach |
| title_sort | effect of an unconventional fare decrease on the demand for bus journeys a regression discontinuity approach |
| topic | Public transport Transport demand Travel choice Regression discontinuity design |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1077291X23000140 |
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