Hydroclimatic change challenges the EU planned transition to a carbon neutral electricity system
EU Member States are progressively decarbonizing their electricity systems by replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources to achieve rapid greenhouse gases emissions reductions. While the planned decarbonized system will be more resilient to hydroclimatic change than existing water-dependent portf...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac243f |
| _version_ | 1797747532431884288 |
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| author | Angelo Carlino Alessia De Vita Matteo Giuliani Patrizia Zamberletti Pantelis Capros Francesca Recanati Maria Kannavou Andrea Castelletti |
| author_facet | Angelo Carlino Alessia De Vita Matteo Giuliani Patrizia Zamberletti Pantelis Capros Francesca Recanati Maria Kannavou Andrea Castelletti |
| author_sort | Angelo Carlino |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | EU Member States are progressively decarbonizing their electricity systems by replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources to achieve rapid greenhouse gases emissions reductions. While the planned decarbonized system will be more resilient to hydroclimatic change than existing water-dependent portfolios, water availability and temperature are still influential factors during this transition to a carbon neutral electricity system, with potential negative impacts on the economy and the environment. Here, we conduct a model-based analysis to assess the impacts of hydroclimatic change on EU decarbonization strategies in two regions, the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and the Danube river basin, characterized by a high share of water-dependent energy sources and expected to be highly affected by climate change. We find that, under the reference electricity system scenario for 2040 aligned with the EU climate and energy strategies, generation from fossil fuels increases, in particular from combined cycle gas turbine plants, to balance the reduction of hydro generation consistently observed in the hydroclimatic scenarios examined. This reduction, in conjunction with increased thermal plants shutdown events due to high water temperature especially in the IP, produces load cuts undermining the reliability of the electricity system. Moreover, increased fossil fuel use results in higher generation costs and carbon intensity, jeopardizing emissions reduction targets and ultimately slowing down the decarbonization process. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7edd9d69f6a74d63a69ff2ebaf0481ea |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:55Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-7edd9d69f6a74d63a69ff2ebaf0481ea2023-08-09T15:05:35ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-01161010401110.1088/1748-9326/ac243fHydroclimatic change challenges the EU planned transition to a carbon neutral electricity systemAngelo Carlino0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8403-9070Alessia De Vita1Matteo Giuliani2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4780-9347Patrizia Zamberletti3Pantelis Capros4Francesca Recanati5Maria Kannavou6Andrea Castelletti7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7923-1498Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano , Milano, ItalyE3M-Lab, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems, National Technical University of Athens , Athens, GreeceDepartment of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano , Milano, ItalyBiostatistics and Spatial Processes (BioSP), INRAE , Avignon, FranceE3M-Lab, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems, National Technical University of Athens , Athens, GreeceDepartment of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano , Milano, ItalyE3M-Lab, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems, National Technical University of Athens , Athens, GreeceDepartment of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano , Milano, ItalyEU Member States are progressively decarbonizing their electricity systems by replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources to achieve rapid greenhouse gases emissions reductions. While the planned decarbonized system will be more resilient to hydroclimatic change than existing water-dependent portfolios, water availability and temperature are still influential factors during this transition to a carbon neutral electricity system, with potential negative impacts on the economy and the environment. Here, we conduct a model-based analysis to assess the impacts of hydroclimatic change on EU decarbonization strategies in two regions, the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and the Danube river basin, characterized by a high share of water-dependent energy sources and expected to be highly affected by climate change. We find that, under the reference electricity system scenario for 2040 aligned with the EU climate and energy strategies, generation from fossil fuels increases, in particular from combined cycle gas turbine plants, to balance the reduction of hydro generation consistently observed in the hydroclimatic scenarios examined. This reduction, in conjunction with increased thermal plants shutdown events due to high water temperature especially in the IP, produces load cuts undermining the reliability of the electricity system. Moreover, increased fossil fuel use results in higher generation costs and carbon intensity, jeopardizing emissions reduction targets and ultimately slowing down the decarbonization process.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac243fclimate change impactselectricity generationdecarbonizationwater-energy nexusthermoelectrichydropower |
| spellingShingle | Angelo Carlino Alessia De Vita Matteo Giuliani Patrizia Zamberletti Pantelis Capros Francesca Recanati Maria Kannavou Andrea Castelletti Hydroclimatic change challenges the EU planned transition to a carbon neutral electricity system Environmental Research Letters climate change impacts electricity generation decarbonization water-energy nexus thermoelectric hydropower |
| title | Hydroclimatic change challenges the EU planned transition to a carbon neutral electricity system |
| title_full | Hydroclimatic change challenges the EU planned transition to a carbon neutral electricity system |
| title_fullStr | Hydroclimatic change challenges the EU planned transition to a carbon neutral electricity system |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hydroclimatic change challenges the EU planned transition to a carbon neutral electricity system |
| title_short | Hydroclimatic change challenges the EU planned transition to a carbon neutral electricity system |
| title_sort | hydroclimatic change challenges the eu planned transition to a carbon neutral electricity system |
| topic | climate change impacts electricity generation decarbonization water-energy nexus thermoelectric hydropower |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac243f |
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