Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of India
Weather forecasts are important for the planning of agricultural operations, especially during times of heightened climatic variability. This study analyzed and verified the medium-range weather forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for different weather parameters over four l...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Agronomy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/12/10/2529 |
| _version_ | 1797476064024330240 |
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| author | Debasish Chakraborty Saurav Saha Bira Kishore Sethy Huidrom Dayananda Singh Naseeb Singh Romen Sharma Athokpam Nomita Chanu Imtisenla Walling Pashel Rolling Anal Samik Chowdhury Samarendra Hazarika Vinay Kumar Mishra Prakash Kumar Jha P. V. Vara Prasad |
| author_facet | Debasish Chakraborty Saurav Saha Bira Kishore Sethy Huidrom Dayananda Singh Naseeb Singh Romen Sharma Athokpam Nomita Chanu Imtisenla Walling Pashel Rolling Anal Samik Chowdhury Samarendra Hazarika Vinay Kumar Mishra Prakash Kumar Jha P. V. Vara Prasad |
| author_sort | Debasish Chakraborty |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Weather forecasts are important for the planning of agricultural operations, especially during times of heightened climatic variability. This study analyzed and verified the medium-range weather forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for different weather parameters over four locations in the northeastern hill (NEH) region of India considering five years of daily datasets. Results revealed good overall accuracy of the forecast over the NEH region. The accuracy of relative humidity (>80%), rainfall (>79%), and wind speed (>70%) were good, and the accuracy of temperature was average, with the usability values for maximum temperatures (44.7–62.7%) comparatively better than for minimum temperatures (38.5–58.6%). The correlation coefficient between the observed and forecasted values was positive (0.24–0.70) and statistically significant for most of the cases, indicating that the forecast could capture variations. Field experiments for maize crops showed that a near-real-time weather forecast-based agro-advisory could manage the uncertainties related to the in-season weather and thereby help in its day-to-day management, which is depicted by the statistically significant (<i>p</i> < 0.05) improvements in the yield of maize. The accuracy of the minimum temperature was poor during winter and post-monsoon seasons, when it plays a crucial role in the determination of optimal growing conditions. Usability of the maximum temperature needs improvement during the pre-monsoon season, as crop cultivation over the region starts from this season due to the high probability of assured rainfall. Therefore, the forecasts were found to be useful but in need of improvement for minimum temperature, which is very crucial for the region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:52:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7ee4d35234cb4d8185eb12788647a649 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:52:39Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj.art-7ee4d35234cb4d8185eb12788647a6492023-11-23T22:28:47ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952022-10-011210252910.3390/agronomy12102529Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of IndiaDebasish Chakraborty0Saurav Saha1Bira Kishore Sethy2Huidrom Dayananda Singh3Naseeb Singh4Romen Sharma5Athokpam Nomita Chanu6Imtisenla Walling7Pashel Rolling Anal8Samik Chowdhury9Samarendra Hazarika10Vinay Kumar Mishra11Prakash Kumar Jha12P. V. Vara Prasad13Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Research Complex for NEH Region (ICAR RC NEHR), Umiam 793 103, Meghalaya, IndiaICAR RC NEHR, Mizoram Centre, Kolasib 796 081, Mizoram, IndiaIndian Council of Agricultural Research, Research Complex for NEH Region (ICAR RC NEHR), Umiam 793 103, Meghalaya, IndiaIndian Council of Agricultural Research, Research Complex for NEH Region (ICAR RC NEHR), Umiam 793 103, Meghalaya, IndiaIndian Council of Agricultural Research, Research Complex for NEH Region (ICAR RC NEHR), Umiam 793 103, Meghalaya, IndiaICAR RC NEHR, Nagaland Centre, Jharnapani 797 106, Nagaland, IndiaICAR RC NEHR, Manipur Centre, Imphal 795 004, Manipur, IndiaICAR RC NEHR, Nagaland Centre, Jharnapani 797 106, Nagaland, IndiaIndian Council of Agricultural Research, Research Complex for NEH Region (ICAR RC NEHR), Umiam 793 103, Meghalaya, IndiaICAR RC NEHR, Mizoram Centre, Kolasib 796 081, Mizoram, IndiaIndian Council of Agricultural Research, Research Complex for NEH Region (ICAR RC NEHR), Umiam 793 103, Meghalaya, IndiaIndian Council of Agricultural Research, Research Complex for NEH Region (ICAR RC NEHR), Umiam 793 103, Meghalaya, IndiaFeed the Future Innovation Lab for Collaborative Research on Sustainable Intensification, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USAFeed the Future Innovation Lab for Collaborative Research on Sustainable Intensification, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USAWeather forecasts are important for the planning of agricultural operations, especially during times of heightened climatic variability. This study analyzed and verified the medium-range weather forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for different weather parameters over four locations in the northeastern hill (NEH) region of India considering five years of daily datasets. Results revealed good overall accuracy of the forecast over the NEH region. The accuracy of relative humidity (>80%), rainfall (>79%), and wind speed (>70%) were good, and the accuracy of temperature was average, with the usability values for maximum temperatures (44.7–62.7%) comparatively better than for minimum temperatures (38.5–58.6%). The correlation coefficient between the observed and forecasted values was positive (0.24–0.70) and statistically significant for most of the cases, indicating that the forecast could capture variations. Field experiments for maize crops showed that a near-real-time weather forecast-based agro-advisory could manage the uncertainties related to the in-season weather and thereby help in its day-to-day management, which is depicted by the statistically significant (<i>p</i> < 0.05) improvements in the yield of maize. The accuracy of the minimum temperature was poor during winter and post-monsoon seasons, when it plays a crucial role in the determination of optimal growing conditions. Usability of the maximum temperature needs improvement during the pre-monsoon season, as crop cultivation over the region starts from this season due to the high probability of assured rainfall. Therefore, the forecasts were found to be useful but in need of improvement for minimum temperature, which is very crucial for the region.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/12/10/2529forecast reliabilityusabilityquantitative verificationtemperature |
| spellingShingle | Debasish Chakraborty Saurav Saha Bira Kishore Sethy Huidrom Dayananda Singh Naseeb Singh Romen Sharma Athokpam Nomita Chanu Imtisenla Walling Pashel Rolling Anal Samik Chowdhury Samarendra Hazarika Vinay Kumar Mishra Prakash Kumar Jha P. V. Vara Prasad Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of India Agronomy forecast reliability usability quantitative verification temperature |
| title | Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of India |
| title_full | Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of India |
| title_fullStr | Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of India |
| title_short | Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of India |
| title_sort | usability of the weather forecast for tackling climatic variability and its effect on maize crop yield in northeastern hill region of india |
| topic | forecast reliability usability quantitative verification temperature |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/12/10/2529 |
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