Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements
Background: Many studies have established a link between weather (primarily temperature) and daily mortality in developed countries. However, little is known about this relationship in urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives: The objective of this study was to describe the relationship b...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2012-11-01
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| Series: | Global Health Action |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/19065/pdf_1 |
| _version_ | 1818766558886887424 |
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| author | Thaddaeus Egondi Catherine Kyobutungi Joacim Rocklöv Remare Ettarh Sari Kovats Kanyiva Muindi |
| author_facet | Thaddaeus Egondi Catherine Kyobutungi Joacim Rocklöv Remare Ettarh Sari Kovats Kanyiva Muindi |
| author_sort | Thaddaeus Egondi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Many studies have established a link between weather (primarily temperature) and daily mortality in developed countries. However, little is known about this relationship in urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives: The objective of this study was to describe the relationship between daily weather and mortality in Nairobi, Kenya, and to evaluate this relationship with regard to cause of death, age, and sex. Methods: We utilized mortality data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System and applied time-series models to study the relationship between daily weather and mortality for a population of approximately 60,000 during the period 2003–2008. We used a distributed lag approach to model the delayed effect of weather on mortality, stratified by cause of death, age, and sex. Results: Increasing temperatures (above 75th percentile) were significantly associated with mortality in children and non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths. We found all-cause mortality of shorter lag of same day and previous day to increase by 3.0% for a 1 degree decrease from the 25th percentile of 18°C (not statistically significant). Mortality among people aged 50+ and children aged below 5 years appeared most susceptible to cold compared to other age groups. Rainfall, in the lag period of 0–29 days, increased all-cause mortality in general, but was found strongest related to mortality among females. Low temperatures were associated with deaths due to acute infections, whereas rainfall was associated with all-cause pneumonia and NCD deaths. Conclusions: Increases in mortality were associated with both hot and cold weather as well as rainfall in Nairobi, but the relationship differed with regard to age, sex, and cause of death. Our findings indicate that weather-related mortality is a public health concern for the population in the informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, especially if current trends in climate change continue. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T08:35:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7efdc50938224a809fdcf318a9d7647c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1654-9880 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T08:35:54Z |
| publishDate | 2012-11-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Health Action |
| spelling | doaj.art-7efdc50938224a809fdcf318a9d7647c2022-12-21T21:14:19ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGlobal Health Action1654-98802012-11-015011010.3402/gha.v5i0.19065Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlementsThaddaeus EgondiCatherine KyobutungiJoacim RocklövRemare EttarhSari KovatsKanyiva MuindiBackground: Many studies have established a link between weather (primarily temperature) and daily mortality in developed countries. However, little is known about this relationship in urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives: The objective of this study was to describe the relationship between daily weather and mortality in Nairobi, Kenya, and to evaluate this relationship with regard to cause of death, age, and sex. Methods: We utilized mortality data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System and applied time-series models to study the relationship between daily weather and mortality for a population of approximately 60,000 during the period 2003–2008. We used a distributed lag approach to model the delayed effect of weather on mortality, stratified by cause of death, age, and sex. Results: Increasing temperatures (above 75th percentile) were significantly associated with mortality in children and non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths. We found all-cause mortality of shorter lag of same day and previous day to increase by 3.0% for a 1 degree decrease from the 25th percentile of 18°C (not statistically significant). Mortality among people aged 50+ and children aged below 5 years appeared most susceptible to cold compared to other age groups. Rainfall, in the lag period of 0–29 days, increased all-cause mortality in general, but was found strongest related to mortality among females. Low temperatures were associated with deaths due to acute infections, whereas rainfall was associated with all-cause pneumonia and NCD deaths. Conclusions: Increases in mortality were associated with both hot and cold weather as well as rainfall in Nairobi, but the relationship differed with regard to age, sex, and cause of death. Our findings indicate that weather-related mortality is a public health concern for the population in the informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, especially if current trends in climate change continue.http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/19065/pdf_1time-seriestemperaturerainfallmortalityclimateurban |
| spellingShingle | Thaddaeus Egondi Catherine Kyobutungi Joacim Rocklöv Remare Ettarh Sari Kovats Kanyiva Muindi Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements Global Health Action time-series temperature rainfall mortality climate urban |
| title | Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements |
| title_full | Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements |
| title_fullStr | Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements |
| title_short | Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements |
| title_sort | time series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in nairobi x0027 s informal settlements |
| topic | time-series temperature rainfall mortality climate urban |
| url | http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/19065/pdf_1 |
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