Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels
Projecting future changes in concurrent dry and hot extremes (CDHEs) and the subsequent socio-economic risks (e.g. population exposure) is critical for climate adaptation and water management under different warming targets. However, to date, this aspect remains poorly understood on both global and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac188f |
| _version_ | 1797747599300624384 |
|---|---|
| author | Wenbin Liu Fubao Sun Yao Feng Chao Li Jie Chen Yan-Fang Sang Qiang Zhang |
| author_facet | Wenbin Liu Fubao Sun Yao Feng Chao Li Jie Chen Yan-Fang Sang Qiang Zhang |
| author_sort | Wenbin Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Projecting future changes in concurrent dry and hot extremes (CDHEs) and the subsequent socio-economic risks (e.g. population exposure) is critical for climate adaptation and water management under different warming targets. However, to date, this aspect remains poorly understood on both global and regional scales. In this study, the changes in future CDHEs and their population exposures under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C warming were quantified using a Standardized Dry and Hot Index calculated based on the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate model outputs and global population datasets. It was found that relative to the baseline period (1986–2005), the severity of CDHEs would increase on the global scale and in most regions, such as in Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Sahara, West Africa, Central America, Mexico, the Amazon, and the west coast of South America under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of warming. Stabilizing the warming at 1.5 °C would constrain the adverse influence of CDHEs on the population suffering from severe CDHEs in most regions (especially in Central Europe, Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Eastern North America, West Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia). Globally, the population impacted by severe CDHEs (with a constant 2000 population) would increase by 108 and 266 million (149 and 367 million when constant 2080 population is applied) for 2 °C and 3 °C increase compared to a 1.5 °C increase. These findings provide scientific evidence of the benefit of limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C in terms of the socio-economic risks related to CDHEs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7f341709a1f244f1878516f7b1ac2791 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:55Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-7f341709a1f244f1878516f7b1ac27912023-08-09T15:03:36ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116909400210.1088/1748-9326/ac188fIncreasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levelsWenbin Liu0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9569-6762Fubao Sun1Yao Feng2Chao Li3Jie Chen4Yan-Fang Sang5Qiang Zhang6Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Urumqi, People’s Republic of China; Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-Ecosystem , Akesu, People’s Republic of China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University , Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University , Wuhan, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaProjecting future changes in concurrent dry and hot extremes (CDHEs) and the subsequent socio-economic risks (e.g. population exposure) is critical for climate adaptation and water management under different warming targets. However, to date, this aspect remains poorly understood on both global and regional scales. In this study, the changes in future CDHEs and their population exposures under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C warming were quantified using a Standardized Dry and Hot Index calculated based on the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate model outputs and global population datasets. It was found that relative to the baseline period (1986–2005), the severity of CDHEs would increase on the global scale and in most regions, such as in Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Sahara, West Africa, Central America, Mexico, the Amazon, and the west coast of South America under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of warming. Stabilizing the warming at 1.5 °C would constrain the adverse influence of CDHEs on the population suffering from severe CDHEs in most regions (especially in Central Europe, Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Eastern North America, West Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia). Globally, the population impacted by severe CDHEs (with a constant 2000 population) would increase by 108 and 266 million (149 and 367 million when constant 2080 population is applied) for 2 °C and 3 °C increase compared to a 1.5 °C increase. These findings provide scientific evidence of the benefit of limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C in terms of the socio-economic risks related to CDHEs.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac188fconcurrent dry and hot extremepopulation exposureanthropogenic warmingCMIP6global scale |
| spellingShingle | Wenbin Liu Fubao Sun Yao Feng Chao Li Jie Chen Yan-Fang Sang Qiang Zhang Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels Environmental Research Letters concurrent dry and hot extreme population exposure anthropogenic warming CMIP6 global scale |
| title | Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels |
| title_full | Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels |
| title_fullStr | Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels |
| title_short | Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels |
| title_sort | increasing population exposure to global warm season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels |
| topic | concurrent dry and hot extreme population exposure anthropogenic warming CMIP6 global scale |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac188f |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT wenbinliu increasingpopulationexposuretoglobalwarmseasonconcurrentdryandhotextremesunderdifferentwarminglevels AT fubaosun increasingpopulationexposuretoglobalwarmseasonconcurrentdryandhotextremesunderdifferentwarminglevels AT yaofeng increasingpopulationexposuretoglobalwarmseasonconcurrentdryandhotextremesunderdifferentwarminglevels AT chaoli increasingpopulationexposuretoglobalwarmseasonconcurrentdryandhotextremesunderdifferentwarminglevels AT jiechen increasingpopulationexposuretoglobalwarmseasonconcurrentdryandhotextremesunderdifferentwarminglevels AT yanfangsang increasingpopulationexposuretoglobalwarmseasonconcurrentdryandhotextremesunderdifferentwarminglevels AT qiangzhang increasingpopulationexposuretoglobalwarmseasonconcurrentdryandhotextremesunderdifferentwarminglevels |