Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st Century
Sea level rise will significantly impact coastal areas around the world. As a coastal country, Malaysia’s rising sea levels are a significant concern because they would affect 70% of its population. The study of sea level rise is important in order to implement effective mitigation and adaptation st...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/2/458 |
| _version_ | 1797620032896761856 |
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| author | Noah Irfan Azran Hafeez Jeofry Jing Xiang Chung Liew Juneng Syamir Alihan Showkat Ali Alex Griffiths Muhammad Zahir Ramli Effi Helmy Ariffin Mohd Fuad Miskon Juliana Mohamed Kamaruzzaman Yunus Mohd Fadzil Akhir |
| author_facet | Noah Irfan Azran Hafeez Jeofry Jing Xiang Chung Liew Juneng Syamir Alihan Showkat Ali Alex Griffiths Muhammad Zahir Ramli Effi Helmy Ariffin Mohd Fuad Miskon Juliana Mohamed Kamaruzzaman Yunus Mohd Fadzil Akhir |
| author_sort | Noah Irfan Azran |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Sea level rise will significantly impact coastal areas around the world. As a coastal country, Malaysia’s rising sea levels are a significant concern because they would affect 70% of its population. The study of sea level rise is important in order to implement effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study investigates the performance of CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in simulating sea level rise in the Malaysian seas using various statistical methods. The models’ performances were evaluated by comparing historic CMIP6 GCM runs from 1993 to 2010 with sea level measurements from the satellite altimetry AVISO+ using the Taylor diagram. The SCS (SCSPM and SCSEM) had a higher sea level range and trend in both selected areas than the SM and SS. With 1.5 °C warmings, the multi-model ensemble means predicted that the SCS would rise by 16 mm near the Peninsular, with sea levels increasing by 0.908 m at a rate of 1.5 mm/year, and by 14.5 mm near East Malaysia, with sea levels increasing by 0.895 m at a rate of 1.1 mm/year. In contrast, 2.0 °C warmings project that SCSPM and SCSEM would cause sea levels to rise by 20.2 mm and 21.5 mm, respectively, at a rate of 0.6 mm/year and 0.7 mm/year. This information will provide an insight into Malaysian sea levels between now and the end of the twenty-first century, which will be beneficial for government agencies, academics, and relevant stakeholders. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:35:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7f530b176368464cb8ac22761824baa3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:35:46Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-7f530b176368464cb8ac22761824baa32023-11-16T21:29:27ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122023-02-0111245810.3390/jmse11020458Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st CenturyNoah Irfan Azran0Hafeez Jeofry1Jing Xiang Chung2Liew Juneng3Syamir Alihan Showkat Ali4Alex Griffiths5Muhammad Zahir Ramli6Effi Helmy Ariffin7Mohd Fuad Miskon8Juliana Mohamed9Kamaruzzaman Yunus10Mohd Fadzil Akhir11Institute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu 21030, MalaysiaInstitute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu 21030, MalaysiaInstitute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu 21030, MalaysiaDepartment of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi 43600, MalaysiaFaculty of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Perlis, Perlis 02600, MalaysiaLondon Metallomics Facility, King’s College London, London WCR 2LS, UKInstitute of Oceanography and Maritime Studies (INOCEM), Kulliyyah of Science, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuantan 25200, MalaysiaInstitute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu 21030, MalaysiaInstitute of Oceanography and Maritime Studies (INOCEM), Kulliyyah of Science, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuantan 25200, MalaysiaInstitute of Oceanography and Maritime Studies (INOCEM), Kulliyyah of Science, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuantan 25200, MalaysiaInstitute of Oceanography and Maritime Studies (INOCEM), Kulliyyah of Science, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuantan 25200, MalaysiaInstitute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu 21030, MalaysiaSea level rise will significantly impact coastal areas around the world. As a coastal country, Malaysia’s rising sea levels are a significant concern because they would affect 70% of its population. The study of sea level rise is important in order to implement effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study investigates the performance of CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in simulating sea level rise in the Malaysian seas using various statistical methods. The models’ performances were evaluated by comparing historic CMIP6 GCM runs from 1993 to 2010 with sea level measurements from the satellite altimetry AVISO+ using the Taylor diagram. The SCS (SCSPM and SCSEM) had a higher sea level range and trend in both selected areas than the SM and SS. With 1.5 °C warmings, the multi-model ensemble means predicted that the SCS would rise by 16 mm near the Peninsular, with sea levels increasing by 0.908 m at a rate of 1.5 mm/year, and by 14.5 mm near East Malaysia, with sea levels increasing by 0.895 m at a rate of 1.1 mm/year. In contrast, 2.0 °C warmings project that SCSPM and SCSEM would cause sea levels to rise by 20.2 mm and 21.5 mm, respectively, at a rate of 0.6 mm/year and 0.7 mm/year. This information will provide an insight into Malaysian sea levels between now and the end of the twenty-first century, which will be beneficial for government agencies, academics, and relevant stakeholders.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/2/458dynamic sea levelsea level riseCMIP6South China Seafuture projectionsclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Noah Irfan Azran Hafeez Jeofry Jing Xiang Chung Liew Juneng Syamir Alihan Showkat Ali Alex Griffiths Muhammad Zahir Ramli Effi Helmy Ariffin Mohd Fuad Miskon Juliana Mohamed Kamaruzzaman Yunus Mohd Fadzil Akhir Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st Century Journal of Marine Science and Engineering dynamic sea level sea level rise CMIP6 South China Sea future projections climate change |
| title | Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st Century |
| title_full | Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st Century |
| title_fullStr | Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st Century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st Century |
| title_short | Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st Century |
| title_sort | southern south china sea dynamics sea level change from coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 cmip6 in the 21st century |
| topic | dynamic sea level sea level rise CMIP6 South China Sea future projections climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/2/458 |
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