Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results
Abstract Background Different strategies have been proposed for transforming the energy system in Germany. To evaluate their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this analysis in an integrated consistent framework is presented h...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Energy, Sustainability and Society |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-022-00361-5 |
| _version_ | 1828272399313797120 |
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| author | Philip Ulrich Tobias Naegler Lisa Becker Ulrike Lehr Sonja Simon Claudia Sutardhio Anke Weidlich |
| author_facet | Philip Ulrich Tobias Naegler Lisa Becker Ulrike Lehr Sonja Simon Claudia Sutardhio Anke Weidlich |
| author_sort | Philip Ulrich |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Different strategies have been proposed for transforming the energy system in Germany. To evaluate their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this analysis in an integrated consistent framework is presented here. Methods Comparing ten energy transition scenarios with emission reduction targets by 2050 of 80% or 95%, respectively, allows evaluating a broad range of energy system transformation strategies with respect to the future technology and energy carrier mix. For this purpose, an energy system model and a macroeconometric model are combined, thus re-modeling the unified scenarios. An important extension of the model was concerned with the integration of synthetic fuels into the energy-economy model. One focus besides the overall macroeconomic assessment is the regional analysis. For this purpose, own assumptions on the regional distribution of the expansion of renewable energies were developed. Results The effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment are similar on average from 2030 to 2050 across the scenarios, with most of the more ambitious scenarios showing slightly higher values for the socioeconomic variables. Employment in the construction sector shows the largest effects in most scenarios, while in the energy sector employment is lower in scenarios with high energy imports. At the regional level, the differences between scenarios are larger than at the national level. There is no clear or stable regional pattern of relative loss and profit from the very ambitious transformation, as not only renewable energy expansion varies, and hydrogen strategies enter the scene approaching 2050. Conclusions From the relatively small differences between the scenarios, it can be concluded that, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is not decisive for the overall economy which (supply side) strategy is chosen for the transformation of the energy system. More effort needs to be put into improving assumptions and modeling approaches related to strategies for achieving the final 20% CO2 reduction, for example the increasing use of hydrogen. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:06:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7f7a485825f7496b95b579d1fff732b1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2192-0567 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:06:09Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy, Sustainability and Society |
| spelling | doaj.art-7f7a485825f7496b95b579d1fff732b12022-12-22T02:59:15ZengBMCEnergy, Sustainability and Society2192-05672022-09-0112111910.1186/s13705-022-00361-5Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional resultsPhilip Ulrich0Tobias Naegler1Lisa Becker2Ulrike Lehr3Sonja Simon4Claudia Sutardhio5Anke Weidlich6Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS)German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy SystemsInstitute of Economic Structures Research (GWS)Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS)German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy SystemsDepartment of Sustainable Systems Engineering (INATECH), University of FreiburgDepartment of Sustainable Systems Engineering (INATECH), University of FreiburgAbstract Background Different strategies have been proposed for transforming the energy system in Germany. To evaluate their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this analysis in an integrated consistent framework is presented here. Methods Comparing ten energy transition scenarios with emission reduction targets by 2050 of 80% or 95%, respectively, allows evaluating a broad range of energy system transformation strategies with respect to the future technology and energy carrier mix. For this purpose, an energy system model and a macroeconometric model are combined, thus re-modeling the unified scenarios. An important extension of the model was concerned with the integration of synthetic fuels into the energy-economy model. One focus besides the overall macroeconomic assessment is the regional analysis. For this purpose, own assumptions on the regional distribution of the expansion of renewable energies were developed. Results The effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment are similar on average from 2030 to 2050 across the scenarios, with most of the more ambitious scenarios showing slightly higher values for the socioeconomic variables. Employment in the construction sector shows the largest effects in most scenarios, while in the energy sector employment is lower in scenarios with high energy imports. At the regional level, the differences between scenarios are larger than at the national level. There is no clear or stable regional pattern of relative loss and profit from the very ambitious transformation, as not only renewable energy expansion varies, and hydrogen strategies enter the scene approaching 2050. Conclusions From the relatively small differences between the scenarios, it can be concluded that, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is not decisive for the overall economy which (supply side) strategy is chosen for the transformation of the energy system. More effort needs to be put into improving assumptions and modeling approaches related to strategies for achieving the final 20% CO2 reduction, for example the increasing use of hydrogen.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-022-00361-5Energy scenarioMacroeconomic modelingEnergy system modelingImpact assessmentRegional impactsSocial indicators |
| spellingShingle | Philip Ulrich Tobias Naegler Lisa Becker Ulrike Lehr Sonja Simon Claudia Sutardhio Anke Weidlich Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results Energy, Sustainability and Society Energy scenario Macroeconomic modeling Energy system modeling Impact assessment Regional impacts Social indicators |
| title | Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results |
| title_full | Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results |
| title_fullStr | Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results |
| title_short | Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results |
| title_sort | comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in germany national and regional results |
| topic | Energy scenario Macroeconomic modeling Energy system modeling Impact assessment Regional impacts Social indicators |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-022-00361-5 |
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