Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East
This study investigates four types of synoptic dust events in the Middle East region, including cyclonic, pre-frontal, post-frontal and Shamal dust storms. For each of these types, three intense and pervasive dust events are analyzed from a synoptic meteorological and numerical simulation perspectiv...
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/11/458 |
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| author | Sara Karami Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis Saviz Sehat Kashani Mehdi Rahnama Alireza Rashki |
| author_facet | Sara Karami Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis Saviz Sehat Kashani Mehdi Rahnama Alireza Rashki |
| author_sort | Sara Karami |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates four types of synoptic dust events in the Middle East region, including cyclonic, pre-frontal, post-frontal and Shamal dust storms. For each of these types, three intense and pervasive dust events are analyzed from a synoptic meteorological and numerical simulation perspective. The performance of 9 operational dust models in forecasting these dust events in the Middle East is qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated against Terra-MODIS observations and AERONET measurements during the dust events. The comparison of model AOD outputs with Terra-MODIS retrievals reveals that despite the significant discrepancies, all models have a relatively acceptable performance in forecasting the AOD patterns in the Middle East. The models enable to represent the high AODs along the dust plumes, although they underestimate them, especially for cyclonic dust storms. In general, the outputs of the NASA-GEOS and DREAM8-MACC models present greater similarity with the satellite and AERONET observations in most of the cases, also exhibiting the highest correlation coefficient, although it is difficult to introduce a single model as the best for all cases. Model AOD predictions over the AERONET stations showed that DREAM8-MACC exhibited the highest R<sup>2</sup> of 0.78, followed by NASA_GEOS model (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.74), which both initially use MODIS data assimilation. Although the outputs of all models correspond to valid time more than 24 h after the initial time, the effect of data assimilation on increasing the accuracy is important. The different dust emission schemes, soil and vegetation mapping, initial and boundary meteorological conditions and spatial resolution between the models, are the main factors influencing the differences in forecasting the dust AODs in the Middle East. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:27:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7f80eabad8de467ea159592a6a18a570 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3263 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:27:36Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-7f80eabad8de467ea159592a6a18a5702023-11-22T23:29:59ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632021-11-01111145810.3390/geosciences11110458Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle EastSara Karami0Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis1Saviz Sehat Kashani2Mehdi Rahnama3Alireza Rashki4Atmospheric Science & Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran 14977-16385, IranInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Palaia Penteli, 15236 Athens, GreeceAtmospheric Science & Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran 14977-16385, IranAtmospheric Science & Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran 14977-16385, IranDepartment of Desert and Arid Zones Management, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 91779-48974, IranThis study investigates four types of synoptic dust events in the Middle East region, including cyclonic, pre-frontal, post-frontal and Shamal dust storms. For each of these types, three intense and pervasive dust events are analyzed from a synoptic meteorological and numerical simulation perspective. The performance of 9 operational dust models in forecasting these dust events in the Middle East is qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated against Terra-MODIS observations and AERONET measurements during the dust events. The comparison of model AOD outputs with Terra-MODIS retrievals reveals that despite the significant discrepancies, all models have a relatively acceptable performance in forecasting the AOD patterns in the Middle East. The models enable to represent the high AODs along the dust plumes, although they underestimate them, especially for cyclonic dust storms. In general, the outputs of the NASA-GEOS and DREAM8-MACC models present greater similarity with the satellite and AERONET observations in most of the cases, also exhibiting the highest correlation coefficient, although it is difficult to introduce a single model as the best for all cases. Model AOD predictions over the AERONET stations showed that DREAM8-MACC exhibited the highest R<sup>2</sup> of 0.78, followed by NASA_GEOS model (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.74), which both initially use MODIS data assimilation. Although the outputs of all models correspond to valid time more than 24 h after the initial time, the effect of data assimilation on increasing the accuracy is important. The different dust emission schemes, soil and vegetation mapping, initial and boundary meteorological conditions and spatial resolution between the models, are the main factors influencing the differences in forecasting the dust AODs in the Middle East.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/11/458dust forecasting modelsremote sensingcyclonesfrontal dust stormsShamalMiddle East |
| spellingShingle | Sara Karami Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis Saviz Sehat Kashani Mehdi Rahnama Alireza Rashki Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East Geosciences dust forecasting models remote sensing cyclones frontal dust storms Shamal Middle East |
| title | Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East |
| title_full | Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East |
| title_short | Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East |
| title_sort | evaluation of nine operational models in forecasting different types of synoptic dust events in the middle east |
| topic | dust forecasting models remote sensing cyclones frontal dust storms Shamal Middle East |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/11/458 |
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