Quels scénarios de débordement de l'Ourthe (Belgique) en réponse à une variabilité climatique long terme ?
This paper proposes an approach of climate change impacts assessment on overflow of an Ourthe river reach (Belgium). We based our work on a set of hydro-climatic scenarios including the long-term climate variability (from the Maunder Minimum to the end of the 21st century). A 1D hydraulic modelling...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Physio-Géo
|
| Series: | Physio-Géo |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.openedition.org/physio-geo/7423 |
| _version_ | 1797314386808799232 |
|---|---|
| author | Benjamin Grelier Pierre Archambeau Michel Pirotton Gilles Drogue |
| author_facet | Benjamin Grelier Pierre Archambeau Michel Pirotton Gilles Drogue |
| author_sort | Benjamin Grelier |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper proposes an approach of climate change impacts assessment on overflow of an Ourthe river reach (Belgium). We based our work on a set of hydro-climatic scenarios including the long-term climate variability (from the Maunder Minimum to the end of the 21st century). A 1D hydraulic modelling (the WOLF 1D model) is then useful to detect an overflowing discharge along the reach, and a discharge-duration-frequency analysis was implemented to consider the flood dynamic (duration of overflow) in the impact study. From comparison between baseline data (1976-2005) corresponding to present climate to hydro-climate scenarios, impacts on overflow characteristics (duration and frequency) are analyzed. Results show that in a context of changing climate conditions, frequency of short overflow events decrease whereas that of long overflow events increase. The results of this study are useful to flood risk managers who aim to add "climatic resilience" to river planning measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T02:46:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7f96c109a7ae4bfdba7b22d3b2d97b0a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1958-573X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T02:46:22Z |
| publisher | Physio-Géo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Physio-Géo |
| spelling | doaj.art-7f96c109a7ae4bfdba7b22d3b2d97b0a2024-02-13T13:23:51ZengPhysio-GéoPhysio-Géo1958-573X13255110.4000/physio-geo.7423Quels scénarios de débordement de l'Ourthe (Belgique) en réponse à une variabilité climatique long terme ?Benjamin GrelierPierre ArchambeauMichel PirottonGilles DrogueThis paper proposes an approach of climate change impacts assessment on overflow of an Ourthe river reach (Belgium). We based our work on a set of hydro-climatic scenarios including the long-term climate variability (from the Maunder Minimum to the end of the 21st century). A 1D hydraulic modelling (the WOLF 1D model) is then useful to detect an overflowing discharge along the reach, and a discharge-duration-frequency analysis was implemented to consider the flood dynamic (duration of overflow) in the impact study. From comparison between baseline data (1976-2005) corresponding to present climate to hydro-climate scenarios, impacts on overflow characteristics (duration and frequency) are analyzed. Results show that in a context of changing climate conditions, frequency of short overflow events decrease whereas that of long overflow events increase. The results of this study are useful to flood risk managers who aim to add "climatic resilience" to river planning measures.https://journals.openedition.org/physio-geo/7423climate variabilityhydrologyriver overflowhydraulic modellingdischarge-duration-frequency analysisOurthe |
| spellingShingle | Benjamin Grelier Pierre Archambeau Michel Pirotton Gilles Drogue Quels scénarios de débordement de l'Ourthe (Belgique) en réponse à une variabilité climatique long terme ? Physio-Géo climate variability hydrology river overflow hydraulic modelling discharge-duration-frequency analysis Ourthe |
| title | Quels scénarios de débordement de l'Ourthe (Belgique) en réponse à une variabilité climatique long terme ? |
| title_full | Quels scénarios de débordement de l'Ourthe (Belgique) en réponse à une variabilité climatique long terme ? |
| title_fullStr | Quels scénarios de débordement de l'Ourthe (Belgique) en réponse à une variabilité climatique long terme ? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quels scénarios de débordement de l'Ourthe (Belgique) en réponse à une variabilité climatique long terme ? |
| title_short | Quels scénarios de débordement de l'Ourthe (Belgique) en réponse à une variabilité climatique long terme ? |
| title_sort | quels scenarios de debordement de l ourthe belgique en reponse a une variabilite climatique long terme |
| topic | climate variability hydrology river overflow hydraulic modelling discharge-duration-frequency analysis Ourthe |
| url | https://journals.openedition.org/physio-geo/7423 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT benjamingrelier quelsscenariosdedebordementdelourthebelgiqueenreponseaunevariabiliteclimatiquelongterme AT pierrearchambeau quelsscenariosdedebordementdelourthebelgiqueenreponseaunevariabiliteclimatiquelongterme AT michelpirotton quelsscenariosdedebordementdelourthebelgiqueenreponseaunevariabiliteclimatiquelongterme AT gillesdrogue quelsscenariosdedebordementdelourthebelgiqueenreponseaunevariabiliteclimatiquelongterme |