Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes
Stratospheric processes and their role in weather and climate have attracted increasing interests. The correspondence between the occurrence of pulse-like, stronger stratospheric poleward warm airmass transport (PULSE) events and the continental-scale cold air outbreak (CAO) events in northern hemis...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.1093189/full |
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| author | Yueyue Yu Yueyue Yu Xueting Yu Zhaoyong Guan Dingzhu Hu Chunhua Shi Dong Guo Jian Rao |
| author_facet | Yueyue Yu Yueyue Yu Xueting Yu Zhaoyong Guan Dingzhu Hu Chunhua Shi Dong Guo Jian Rao |
| author_sort | Yueyue Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Stratospheric processes and their role in weather and climate have attracted increasing interests. The correspondence between the occurrence of pulse-like, stronger stratospheric poleward warm airmass transport (PULSE) events and the continental-scale cold air outbreak (CAO) events in northern hemispheric winter is found to be unstable from year to year. This increases the difficulties in utilizing the more predictable stratospheric variability in the sub-seasonal forecasts of CAOs, which can cause cold hazards. Using the ERA5 reanalysis data covering 37 winters (November–March) in the period 1979–2015, this study categorizes the CAO events over mid-latitudes of Eurasia (CAO_EA) and those over North America (CAO_NA) into two groups: those coupled with and those decoupled with the PULSE events. The coupled CAOs are further categorized into events that are, respectively, lead-coupled and lag-coupled with PULSEs. The intensity and affected area of extremely cold temperatures tend to be larger during CAOs that are coupled with PULSEs, particularly during the CAO_NA events that are lag-coupled with PULSEs and the CAO_EA events that are lead-coupled with PULSEs. Remarkable interannual and interdecadal variations are observed in the percentage of CAOs that are coupled with PULSEs for each winter, which is an important reference for determining the window of opportunity for skillful sub-seasonal forecasts of CAO by using the stratospheric signals. At both interdecadal and interannual timescales, a warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in winter is favorable for the higher lag-coupling rate of CAO_NA and the lead-coupling rate of CAO_EA, and vice versa. The ENSO signals related to the interdecadal changes of the CAO coupling rate in winter can be traced back to the previous winter, while an ENSO phase transition from the previous winter to the current winter is closely related to the interannual changes of the CAO coupling rate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T00:35:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7fb09e44442c4d58ab232dcd9a342b62 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T00:35:59Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-7fb09e44442c4d58ab232dcd9a342b622023-01-06T18:50:30ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632023-01-011010.3389/feart.2022.10931891093189Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changesYueyue Yu0Yueyue Yu1Xueting Yu2Zhaoyong Guan3Dingzhu Hu4Chunhua Shi5Dong Guo6Jian Rao7Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC–FEMD), Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaLASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC–FEMD), Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC–FEMD), Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC–FEMD), Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC–FEMD), Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC–FEMD), Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC–FEMD), Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaStratospheric processes and their role in weather and climate have attracted increasing interests. The correspondence between the occurrence of pulse-like, stronger stratospheric poleward warm airmass transport (PULSE) events and the continental-scale cold air outbreak (CAO) events in northern hemispheric winter is found to be unstable from year to year. This increases the difficulties in utilizing the more predictable stratospheric variability in the sub-seasonal forecasts of CAOs, which can cause cold hazards. Using the ERA5 reanalysis data covering 37 winters (November–March) in the period 1979–2015, this study categorizes the CAO events over mid-latitudes of Eurasia (CAO_EA) and those over North America (CAO_NA) into two groups: those coupled with and those decoupled with the PULSE events. The coupled CAOs are further categorized into events that are, respectively, lead-coupled and lag-coupled with PULSEs. The intensity and affected area of extremely cold temperatures tend to be larger during CAOs that are coupled with PULSEs, particularly during the CAO_NA events that are lag-coupled with PULSEs and the CAO_EA events that are lead-coupled with PULSEs. Remarkable interannual and interdecadal variations are observed in the percentage of CAOs that are coupled with PULSEs for each winter, which is an important reference for determining the window of opportunity for skillful sub-seasonal forecasts of CAO by using the stratospheric signals. At both interdecadal and interannual timescales, a warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in winter is favorable for the higher lag-coupling rate of CAO_NA and the lead-coupling rate of CAO_EA, and vice versa. The ENSO signals related to the interdecadal changes of the CAO coupling rate in winter can be traced back to the previous winter, while an ENSO phase transition from the previous winter to the current winter is closely related to the interannual changes of the CAO coupling rate.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.1093189/fullcold air outbreakstratosphere–troposphere couplinginterannualinterdecadalENSOSST |
| spellingShingle | Yueyue Yu Yueyue Yu Xueting Yu Zhaoyong Guan Dingzhu Hu Chunhua Shi Dong Guo Jian Rao Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes Frontiers in Earth Science cold air outbreak stratosphere–troposphere coupling interannual interdecadal ENSO SST |
| title | Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes |
| title_full | Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes |
| title_fullStr | Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes |
| title_short | Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes |
| title_sort | stratospheric pulse continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships interannual and interdecadal changes |
| topic | cold air outbreak stratosphere–troposphere coupling interannual interdecadal ENSO SST |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.1093189/full |
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