Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability
Most studies assessing climate impacts on agriculture have focused on average changes in market-mediated responses (e.g. changes in land use, production, and consumption). However, the response of global agricultural markets to interannual variability (IAV) in climate and biophysical shocks is poorl...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2965 |
| _version_ | 1797747463787905024 |
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| author | Xin Zhao Katherine V Calvin Marshall A Wise Pralit L Patel Abigail C Snyder Stephanie T Waldhoff Mohamad I Hejazi James A Edmonds |
| author_facet | Xin Zhao Katherine V Calvin Marshall A Wise Pralit L Patel Abigail C Snyder Stephanie T Waldhoff Mohamad I Hejazi James A Edmonds |
| author_sort | Xin Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Most studies assessing climate impacts on agriculture have focused on average changes in market-mediated responses (e.g. changes in land use, production, and consumption). However, the response of global agricultural markets to interannual variability (IAV) in climate and biophysical shocks is poorly understood and not well represented in global economic models. Here we show a strong transmission of IAVs in climate-induced biophysical yield shocks to agriculture markets, which is further magnified by endogenous market fluctuations generated due to producers’ imperfect expectations of market and weather conditions. We demonstrate that the volatility of crop prices and consumption could be significantly underestimated (i.e. on average by 55% and 41%, respectively) by assuming perfect foresight, a standard assumption in the economic equilibrium modeling, compared with the relatively more realistic adaptive expectations. We also find heterogeneity in IAV across crops and regions, which is considerably mediated by international trade. Studying IAV provides fundamentally new insights on measuring and understanding climate impacts on global agriculture, and our framework lays the foundation for further investigating the full range of climate impacts on biophysical and human systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7fb4607d333b46af90e5a5d393c85d9f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:56Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-7fb4607d333b46af90e5a5d393c85d9f2023-08-09T15:07:19ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-01161010403710.1088/1748-9326/ac2965Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variabilityXin Zhao0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1801-4393Katherine V Calvin1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2191-4189Marshall A Wise2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2718-0051Pralit L Patel3Abigail C Snyder4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9034-9948Stephanie T Waldhoff5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8073-0868Mohamad I Hejazi6James A Edmonds7Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States of AmericaMost studies assessing climate impacts on agriculture have focused on average changes in market-mediated responses (e.g. changes in land use, production, and consumption). However, the response of global agricultural markets to interannual variability (IAV) in climate and biophysical shocks is poorly understood and not well represented in global economic models. Here we show a strong transmission of IAVs in climate-induced biophysical yield shocks to agriculture markets, which is further magnified by endogenous market fluctuations generated due to producers’ imperfect expectations of market and weather conditions. We demonstrate that the volatility of crop prices and consumption could be significantly underestimated (i.e. on average by 55% and 41%, respectively) by assuming perfect foresight, a standard assumption in the economic equilibrium modeling, compared with the relatively more realistic adaptive expectations. We also find heterogeneity in IAV across crops and regions, which is considerably mediated by international trade. Studying IAV provides fundamentally new insights on measuring and understanding climate impacts on global agriculture, and our framework lays the foundation for further investigating the full range of climate impacts on biophysical and human systems.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2965interannual variabilityclimate impactadaptationagricultureimperfect foresightGCAM |
| spellingShingle | Xin Zhao Katherine V Calvin Marshall A Wise Pralit L Patel Abigail C Snyder Stephanie T Waldhoff Mohamad I Hejazi James A Edmonds Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability Environmental Research Letters interannual variability climate impact adaptation agriculture imperfect foresight GCAM |
| title | Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability |
| title_full | Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability |
| title_fullStr | Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability |
| title_short | Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability |
| title_sort | global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability |
| topic | interannual variability climate impact adaptation agriculture imperfect foresight GCAM |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2965 |
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