An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI)
Abstract Background Most COVID-19 vulnerability indices rely on measures that are biased by rates of exposure or are retrospective like mortality rates that offer little opportunity for intervention. The Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) is a precision public health early warning alternative to...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-11-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17092-7 |
| _version_ | 1797636624070213632 |
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| author | Harriet Moore Bartholomew Hill Jay Emery Mark Gussy Aloysius Niroshan Siriwardena Robert Spaight Frank Tanser |
| author_facet | Harriet Moore Bartholomew Hill Jay Emery Mark Gussy Aloysius Niroshan Siriwardena Robert Spaight Frank Tanser |
| author_sort | Harriet Moore |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Most COVID-19 vulnerability indices rely on measures that are biased by rates of exposure or are retrospective like mortality rates that offer little opportunity for intervention. The Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) is a precision public health early warning alternative to traditional infection fatality rates that presents avenues for mortality prevention. Methods We produced an infection-severity vulnerability index by calculating the proportion of all recorded positive cases that were severe and attended by ambulances at small area scale for the East Midlands of the UK between May 2020 and April 2022. We produced maps identifying regions with high and low vulnerability, investigated the accuracy of the index over shorter and longer time periods, and explored the utility of the MHVI compared to other common proxy measures and indices. Analysis included exploring the correlation between our novel index and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). Results The MHVI captures geospatial dynamics that single metrics alone often overlook, including the compound health challenges associated with disadvantaged and declining coastal towns inhabited by communities with post-industrial health legacies. A moderate negative correlation between MHVI and IMD reflects spatial analysis which suggests that high vulnerability occurs in affluent rural as well as deprived coastal and urban communities. Further, the MHVI estimates of severity rates are comparable to infection fatality rates for COVID-19. Conclusions The MHVI identifies regions with known high rates of poor health outcomes prior to the pandemic that case rates or mortality rates alone fail to identify. Pre-hospital early warning measures could be utilised to prevent mortality during a novel pandemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:37:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7fd78a9f04524cb39240c41bc78ee3c1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:37:44Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-7fd78a9f04524cb39240c41bc78ee3c12023-11-05T12:31:43ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582023-11-0123111810.1186/s12889-023-17092-7An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI)Harriet Moore0Bartholomew Hill1Jay Emery2Mark Gussy3Aloysius Niroshan Siriwardena4Robert Spaight5Frank Tanser6Department of Geography, University of LincolnEDGE ConsortiumDepartment of Geography, University of LincolnEDGE ConsortiumEDGE ConsortiumEDGE ConsortiumEDGE ConsortiumAbstract Background Most COVID-19 vulnerability indices rely on measures that are biased by rates of exposure or are retrospective like mortality rates that offer little opportunity for intervention. The Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) is a precision public health early warning alternative to traditional infection fatality rates that presents avenues for mortality prevention. Methods We produced an infection-severity vulnerability index by calculating the proportion of all recorded positive cases that were severe and attended by ambulances at small area scale for the East Midlands of the UK between May 2020 and April 2022. We produced maps identifying regions with high and low vulnerability, investigated the accuracy of the index over shorter and longer time periods, and explored the utility of the MHVI compared to other common proxy measures and indices. Analysis included exploring the correlation between our novel index and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). Results The MHVI captures geospatial dynamics that single metrics alone often overlook, including the compound health challenges associated with disadvantaged and declining coastal towns inhabited by communities with post-industrial health legacies. A moderate negative correlation between MHVI and IMD reflects spatial analysis which suggests that high vulnerability occurs in affluent rural as well as deprived coastal and urban communities. Further, the MHVI estimates of severity rates are comparable to infection fatality rates for COVID-19. Conclusions The MHVI identifies regions with known high rates of poor health outcomes prior to the pandemic that case rates or mortality rates alone fail to identify. Pre-hospital early warning measures could be utilised to prevent mortality during a novel pandemic.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17092-7COVID-19Vulnerability indexPrecision public healthAmbulance data |
| spellingShingle | Harriet Moore Bartholomew Hill Jay Emery Mark Gussy Aloysius Niroshan Siriwardena Robert Spaight Frank Tanser An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) BMC Public Health COVID-19 Vulnerability index Precision public health Ambulance data |
| title | An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) |
| title_full | An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) |
| title_fullStr | An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) |
| title_full_unstemmed | An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) |
| title_short | An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) |
| title_sort | early warning precision public health approach for assessing covid 19 vulnerability in the uk the moore hill vulnerability index mhvi |
| topic | COVID-19 Vulnerability index Precision public health Ambulance data |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17092-7 |
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