A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices
Climate indices are developed to determine climate impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, providing a comprehensive communication of complex information arising from climate change assessments. These may be used by decision-makers to properly and timely implement climate change adaptation measu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-04-01
|
| Series: | Climate Services |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000389 |
| _version_ | 1797801714676400128 |
|---|---|
| author | Daniela C.A. Lima Virgílio A. Bento Gil Lemos Miguel Nogueira Pedro M.M. Soares |
| author_facet | Daniela C.A. Lima Virgílio A. Bento Gil Lemos Miguel Nogueira Pedro M.M. Soares |
| author_sort | Daniela C.A. Lima |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate indices are developed to determine climate impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, providing a comprehensive communication of complex information arising from climate change assessments. These may be used by decision-makers to properly and timely implement climate change adaptation measures in different sectors of human activity, such as agriculture and crop selection, forest, and coastal management, among others. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate indices estimated for Portugal, known to be in a climate change hotspot. A multi-variable 13-member ensemble of EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations is used to assess future climate change projections of climate indices, exploring three future scenarios until 2100, and considering three different emission scenarios, namely the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Aligned with warming and drying projected conditions, an increase in the number of summer days to very hot days is expected to become more frequent and intense, with more impact over interior regions. Tropical nights are projected to become more common, affecting the thermal comfort conditions and threatening future human health. Although the future projections show an overall reduction in the number of wet days, the amount of precipitation during short-time wet periods will increase leading to an intensification of moderate/heavy rainfall. These results corroborate that Portugal is in a climate change hotspot, calling for efficient policymaking by the relevant authorities. Indeed, such projections call for an urgent planning and development of adaptation measures to safeguard critical sectors of the Portuguese society, such as agriculture, forests, coastal management, among others. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7fdf27a51ddc4df2a34bf32cad7fee3a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-7fdf27a51ddc4df2a34bf32cad7fee3a2023-06-18T05:02:55ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072023-04-0130100377A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indicesDaniela C.A. Lima0Virgílio A. Bento1Gil Lemos2Miguel Nogueira3Pedro M.M. Soares4Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, Portugal; Corresponding author at: Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Ed. C8 (3.32), 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, PortugalUniversidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, PortugalUniversidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, Portugal; Cervest, Canalot Studios, Studio 133, 222 Kensal Road, London W10 5BN, UKUniversidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, PortugalClimate indices are developed to determine climate impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, providing a comprehensive communication of complex information arising from climate change assessments. These may be used by decision-makers to properly and timely implement climate change adaptation measures in different sectors of human activity, such as agriculture and crop selection, forest, and coastal management, among others. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate indices estimated for Portugal, known to be in a climate change hotspot. A multi-variable 13-member ensemble of EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations is used to assess future climate change projections of climate indices, exploring three future scenarios until 2100, and considering three different emission scenarios, namely the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Aligned with warming and drying projected conditions, an increase in the number of summer days to very hot days is expected to become more frequent and intense, with more impact over interior regions. Tropical nights are projected to become more common, affecting the thermal comfort conditions and threatening future human health. Although the future projections show an overall reduction in the number of wet days, the amount of precipitation during short-time wet periods will increase leading to an intensification of moderate/heavy rainfall. These results corroborate that Portugal is in a climate change hotspot, calling for efficient policymaking by the relevant authorities. Indeed, such projections call for an urgent planning and development of adaptation measures to safeguard critical sectors of the Portuguese society, such as agriculture, forests, coastal management, among others.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000389Climate indicesClimate changeMulti-variable ensembleEURO-CORDEXRegional climate modelsPortugal |
| spellingShingle | Daniela C.A. Lima Virgílio A. Bento Gil Lemos Miguel Nogueira Pedro M.M. Soares A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices Climate Services Climate indices Climate change Multi-variable ensemble EURO-CORDEX Regional climate models Portugal |
| title | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices |
| title_full | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices |
| title_fullStr | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices |
| title_full_unstemmed | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices |
| title_short | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices |
| title_sort | multi variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi scenarios for portugal part ii sectoral climate indices |
| topic | Climate indices Climate change Multi-variable ensemble EURO-CORDEX Regional climate models Portugal |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000389 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT danielacalima amultivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices AT virgilioabento amultivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices AT gillemos amultivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices AT miguelnogueira amultivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices AT pedrommsoares amultivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices AT danielacalima multivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices AT virgilioabento multivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices AT gillemos multivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices AT miguelnogueira multivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices AT pedrommsoares multivariableconstrainedensembleofregionalclimateprojectionsundermultiscenariosforportugalpartiisectoralclimateindices |