| Summary: | An appropriate water supply strategy is imperative for obtaining tomatoes of a high yield and quality; the lack of one has caused resource wastage and quality deterioration. To determine the suitable irrigation amount and simulate daily transpiration under these optimal irrigation conditions, a two-year greenhouse cultivation experiment was conducted over 2022–2023. Commencing at anthesis, three distinct irrigation gradients were triggered and designated as irrigation controls with the lower limits set at 80% (T1), 70% (T2), and 60% (T3) of the substrate water-holding capacity. We determined the optimal irrigation amount by ranking the treatments using the TOPSIS method, balancing the tomato yield and quality. A segmented daily transpiration model under optimal irrigation conditions driven by crop and environmental factors was established using the Marquardt method and data from 2022, and the model was validated using data from 2023. The results indicated that T2 was the optimal irrigation amount, with the water use efficiency increased by 18.0%, but with a 10.9% decrease in yield, while the quality indices improved significantly. The <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> values of the segmented model in the flowering and fruit-setting stage and the picking stage were 0.92 and 0.86, respectively, which could provide support for optimized water management for tomato planting in greenhouse substrate cultivation.
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