Environmental concentrations as ratios of random variables
Human-induced environmental change increasingly threatens the stability of socio-ecological systems. Careful statistical characterization of environmental concentrations is critical to quantify and predict the consequences of such changes on human and ecosystems conditions. However, while concentrat...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a9f |
| _version_ | 1797747082787815424 |
|---|---|
| author | Saverio Perri Amilcare Porporato |
| author_facet | Saverio Perri Amilcare Porporato |
| author_sort | Saverio Perri |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Human-induced environmental change increasingly threatens the stability of socio-ecological systems. Careful statistical characterization of environmental concentrations is critical to quantify and predict the consequences of such changes on human and ecosystems conditions. However, while concentrations are naturally defined as the ratio between solute mass and solvent volume, they have rarely been treated as such, typically limiting the analysis to familiar distributions generically used for any other environmental variable. To address this gap, we propose a more general framework that leverages their definition explicitly as ratios of random variables. We show that the resulting models accurately describe the behavior of nitrate plus nitrite in US rivers and salt concentration in estuaries in the Everglades by accounting for heavy tails potentially emerging when the water volume fluctuates around low values. Models that preclude the presence of heavy tails and the related high probability of extreme concentrations could significantly undermine the accuracy of diagnostic frameworks and the effectiveness of mitigation interventions, especially for soil contamination characterized by a water volume (i.e. soil moisture) frequently approaching zero. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:46:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-805743827a9c4421a149b4afe231902f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:46:06Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-805743827a9c4421a149b4afe231902f2023-08-09T15:25:48ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117202401110.1088/1748-9326/ac4a9fEnvironmental concentrations as ratios of random variablesSaverio Perri0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6382-1381Amilcare Porporato1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9378-207XHigh Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08544, United States of AmericaHigh Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08544, United States of America; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08540, United States of AmericaHuman-induced environmental change increasingly threatens the stability of socio-ecological systems. Careful statistical characterization of environmental concentrations is critical to quantify and predict the consequences of such changes on human and ecosystems conditions. However, while concentrations are naturally defined as the ratio between solute mass and solvent volume, they have rarely been treated as such, typically limiting the analysis to familiar distributions generically used for any other environmental variable. To address this gap, we propose a more general framework that leverages their definition explicitly as ratios of random variables. We show that the resulting models accurately describe the behavior of nitrate plus nitrite in US rivers and salt concentration in estuaries in the Everglades by accounting for heavy tails potentially emerging when the water volume fluctuates around low values. Models that preclude the presence of heavy tails and the related high probability of extreme concentrations could significantly undermine the accuracy of diagnostic frameworks and the effectiveness of mitigation interventions, especially for soil contamination characterized by a water volume (i.e. soil moisture) frequently approaching zero.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a9fenvironmental concentrationsratio distributionsrisk assessmentnitratessalinityenvironmental change |
| spellingShingle | Saverio Perri Amilcare Porporato Environmental concentrations as ratios of random variables Environmental Research Letters environmental concentrations ratio distributions risk assessment nitrates salinity environmental change |
| title | Environmental concentrations as ratios of random variables |
| title_full | Environmental concentrations as ratios of random variables |
| title_fullStr | Environmental concentrations as ratios of random variables |
| title_full_unstemmed | Environmental concentrations as ratios of random variables |
| title_short | Environmental concentrations as ratios of random variables |
| title_sort | environmental concentrations as ratios of random variables |
| topic | environmental concentrations ratio distributions risk assessment nitrates salinity environmental change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a9f |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT saverioperri environmentalconcentrationsasratiosofrandomvariables AT amilcareporporato environmentalconcentrationsasratiosofrandomvariables |